数字经济冲击下国际经贸规则重构的理论分析与趋势研判  

Theoretical and Trend Analysis of the Reconstruction of International Economic and Trade Rules under the Impact of Digital Economy

作　　者：白洁[1,2] 高凌云[3] Bai Jie;Gao Lingyun

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学经济学院 [2]山东财经大学中国经济研究院 [3]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2024年第6期125-150,7,8,共28页International Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助暨优秀博士论文项目“国际经贸规则重塑与中国选择”(项目编号:20FGJB011);“数字贸易规则研究”(项目编号:22FGJB013);国家社会科学基金重大项目“RCEP对亚太区域价值链重构的影响机制及应对策略研究”(项目编号:22&ZD177)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：现有国际经贸规则业已形成以“公平竞技场规则”、利益调整规则和执行力规则为三大支点的有机统一体。规则广度和规则深度随着密集的经贸谈判快速拓展,并逐渐进入重构期。数字经济的出现为规则演进注入新议题的同时,也冲击着现有框架和内容。在对已有制度起源与演进理论修正的基础上,本文构建了数字经济冲击下国际经贸规则重构的理论模型、提出了实现路径与典型模式,并对未来趋势与调整方向进行预判。主要结论如下:第一,数字经济的出现打破了国际经贸规则演进中的稳态。潜在利益的出现诱导相关利益集团提出规则诉求,并通过国内、国际两阶段博弈,最终达成政治均衡。第二,数字经贸规则重构过程中形成了美国的“渐进重塑+由内而外的推广模式”、欧盟的“重点发力+由内而外的监管模式”以及中国的“集成创新+双向联动的对接模式”。第三,数字贸易冲击下国际经贸规则重构主要体现在“公平竞技场规则”层面,利益调整规则和执行力规则层面仅有少量调整。第四,中国参与国际经贸规则重构起步晚、进步快,但目前仍面临体制和机制障碍,以及国际环境和国际压力的挑战,亟待采取相应措施推动数字经贸规则创新发展。The existing international economic and trade rules have formed an organic synergy with"fair arena rules",interest adjustment rules and enforcement rules as the three major fulcrums.The breadth and depth of rules advance rapidly with intensive economic and trade negotiations,and gradually entering a period of reconstruction.The emergence of the digital economy brings new issues into the evolution of rules,while it also impacts existing frameworks and contents of rules.On the basis of revising the existing theories of institutional origin and evolution,this article constructs a theoretical model for reshaping international economic and trade rules under the impact of the digital economy,proposes implementation paths and typical models,and predicts future trends and adjustment directions.The main conclusions are as follows.First,the emergence of the digital economy has disrupted the steady state in the evolution of international economic and trade rules.The emergence of potential interests induces relevant interest groups to propose rule demands and ultimately achieves political equilibrium through a two-stage game at domestic and international levels.Second,in the process of forming digital economic and trade rules,three models have emerged;one is the"gradual reshaping plus internal-to-external promotion model"advocated by the United States,the European Union's"key focus plus internal-to-external regulatory model",and China's"bidirectional linkage plus docking model".Third,the reconstruction of international economic and trade rules under the impact of digital trade is mainly reflected in"fair arena rules"with minor adjustments made in interest adjustment rules and enforcement rules.Fourth,China's participation in the reconstruction of international economic and trade rules started late but it has made rapid progress.However,it still faces many institutional obstacles,as well as challenges arising from the international environment and pressure.It is urgent for China to take targeted measures to promote the innova

关 键 词：数字经济 数字贸易 国际经贸规则重构 制度经济学分析 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易] F49[经济管理—产业经济]