基于GIS的安徽省雷电致灾危险性评估与区划  

Assessment and zoning of lightning disaster-causing hazards in Anhui Province based on GIS

作　　者：朱浩 程向阳 田红[2] 鞠晓雨 邱阳阳 ZHU Hao;CHENG Xiangyang;TIAN Hong;JU Xiaoyu;QIU Yangyang(Anhui Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center,Hefei 230031;Anhui Climate Center,Hefei 230031;Huai River Basin Meteorological Center,Hefei 230031)

机构地区：[1]安徽省气象灾害防御技术中心,合肥230031 [2]安徽省气候中心,合肥230031 [3]淮河流域气象中心,合肥230031

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2024年第6期733-740,共8页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：安徽省重点研究与开发计划项目标准化专项(202004h07020001);安徽省气象局新技术集成项目(AHXJ201905)。

摘　　要：致灾危险性评估是雷电灾害风险普查的关键环节。根据2020年开始的全国气象灾害综合风险普查的技术路线,基于2010—2020年安徽省闪电定位、2000—2020年历史灾情、数字地形高程和土壤电导率资料,参照《全国气象灾害调查与风险评估技术规范(雷电)》构建安徽省雷电致灾危险性区划模型,利用层次分析法确定各指标权重后计算雷电致灾危险性指数,结合GIS技术完成雷电致灾危险性区划。结果表明:(1)雷击密度和雷电流幅值分布与地形地貌密切相关,海拔高度和地形起伏度对雷电致灾危险性具有正向驱动作用。(2)雷电灾害孕灾高和较高敏感区主要位于山区、沿江和淮河流域局部地区。(3)雷电致灾高危险区位于沿江大部及皖南山区部分地区;较高危险区位于皖南山区、江淮之间和沿江江南的部分地区;较低和低危险区位于皖北地区和江淮之间的平原和丘陵部分地区。结合历史灾情数据对比检验,区划结果与实际灾情分布基本吻合,可为安徽省的雷电灾害防御工作提供参考。The assessment of lightning disaster-causing hazards is the key to risk survey of lightning disasters.Following the technical route of the national meteorological disasters comprehensive risk survey since 2020,and based on the lightning location data from 2010 to 2020,lightning disaster data from 2000 to 2020,digital elevation data,and soil conductivity data in Anhui Province,a model diagram of disaster-causing hazard zoning was constructed according to“Specification for meteorological disasters investigation and risk assessment:Lightning”.The Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to determine the weight of each index,and the lightning disaster-causing hazard index was then calculated.The zoning of lightning disaster-causing hazards in Anhui Province was completed by combining with GIS technology.The results are as follows.(1)The distributions of lightning strike density and lightning peak current amplitude are closely related to the topography.The altitude and terrain have a positive driving effect on the lightning disaster-causing hazard.(2)The high and relatively high sensitivity of lightning disaster-pregnant areas are mainly located in mountainous regions,along the Yangtze River,and parts of the Huai River basin.(3)The areas of high lightning disasters are mainly located in most regions along the Yangtze River and southern mountainous regions in Anhui Province.The areas of relatively high lightning disasters are mainly located in the southern mountainous region,between the Yangtze River and Huai River,and parts of the Jiangnan region.The areas of low and relatively low lightning disasters are mainly located in the plain and hilly areas in the northern Anhui region and the Jiang-huai region.By comparing the zoning results with historical disaster data,it is found that the distribution of lightning disaster-causing hazard zoning agrees well with the true distribution of disaster,which can provide a reference for future lightning disaster prevention in Anhui Province.

关 键 词：雷电灾害 雷电流幅值 孕灾环境敏感性 GIS技术 致灾危险性区划 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]