基于贝叶斯网络的桥梁缆索吊装施工风险识别与评估  

Risk identification and assessment of bridge cable hoisting construction based on Bayesian network

作　　者：阮坤 RUAN Kun

机构地区：[1]福州左海建设投资有限责任公司,福建福州350028

出　　处：《福建建设科技》2024年第6期112-114,共3页Fujian Construction Science & Technology

基　　金：福建省交通运输科技项目(2022Y041)。

摘　　要：针对桥梁缆索吊装施工中可能会遇到的各类风险,引入贝叶斯网络对缆索吊装施工风险进行评估。首先通过资料调研明确桥梁缆索吊装的施工步骤及各步骤中隐含的各类风险因素。其次,结合专家调查所获得的数据,建立贝叶斯网络,推断出风险因素发生概率,实现桥梁缆索吊装施工风险评估。最后以某拱桥施工安全风险评估为例验证所提方法的可行性及可靠性。结果表明缆索安装、主拱圈合龙、临时支架坍塌、局部吊点受力过大而损坏、人员与结构物碰撞、扣索张拉中断裂、接缝处出现不完整或不均匀闭合等风险因素是导致缆索吊装工程出现风险的关键致险因素,整体的缆索吊装工程出现中等风险的可能性更大。In response to various risks that may be encountered in bridge cable hoisting construction,Bayesian networks are introduced to evaluate the risks of cable hoisting construction.Firstly,through data research,clarify the construction steps of bridge cable hoisting and the various risk factors hidden in each step.Secondly,based on the data obtained from expert investigations,a Bayesian network is established to infer the probability of risk factors and achieve risk assessment for bridge cable hoisting construction.Finally,taking the construction safety risk assessment of a certain arch bridge as an example,the feasibility and reliability of the proposed method are verified.The results indicate that risk factors such as cable installation,main arch closure,temporary support collapse,damage to local lifting points due to excessive force,collision between personnel and structures,breakage during cable tensioning,and incomplete or uneven closure of joints are the key risk factors leading to cable hoisting projects.The overall cable hoisting project is more likely to have moderate risks.

关 键 词：缆索吊装 贝叶斯网络 施工风险识别 

分 类 号：U445[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]