长江流域城市经济韧性的统计测度和时空差异研究  

Research on statistical measurement and spatial and temporal differences of urban economic resilience in the Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：马海良[1] 赵煜华 赵芯 MA Hailiang;ZHAO Yuhua;ZHAO Xin(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《水利经济》2024年第6期25-32,共8页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(20YJA790052);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(B210207041);江苏省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202310294158Y)。

摘　　要：运用熵权法构建经济韧性评价指标体系,对长江流域40个城市2007-2021年的经济韧性水平进行评价,利用Dagum基尼系数按子群分解等方法对长江流域整体及其上、中、下游的区域经济韧性的时空差异演变进行评价。结果表明:2007-2021年,长江流域整体的经济韧性水平大幅上升,高度韧性的城市数量占比从0.025升至0.275,低度韧性的城市数量占比由0.25跌至0.025;长江流域各地区经济韧性的水平呈现空间异质性,下游地区最高,上游地区次之,中游地区最低;造成经济韧性差异的主导因素随时间而变化,2007-2008年主要是因为区域内差异,2009年之后超变密度的贡献率最大。据此,提出长江流域各区域主体应加强协同合作,提升整体经济韧性,各区域的不同城市应根据各自特点采取针对性措施等建议。The entropy weight method was used to construct an economic resilience evaluation index system to evaluate the economic resilience levels of 40 cities in the Yangtze River Basin from 2007 to 2021.The method of subgroup decomposition of Dagum’s Gini coefficient and other methods were utilized to evaluate the evolution of the spatial and temporal differences in the economic resilience of the Yangtze River Basin as a whole and its upper,middle,and lower regions.The results show that from 2007 to 2021,the overall level of economic resilience increased significantly,with the proportion of high resilience cities rising from 0.025 to 0.275 and the proportion of low resilience cities falling from 0.25 to 0.025.The levels of economic resilience of various regions of the Yangtze River Basin exhibit spatial heterogeneity:the lower reaches show the highest resilience,followed by the upper reaches,with the middle reaches being the lowest.The dominant factors causing differences in economic resilience vary over time,mainly due to intra-regional differences from 2007 to 2008 and with hypervariable density contributing the most after 2009.Accordingly,it is proposed that regional stakeholders in the Yangtze River Basin should strengthen synergistic cooperation to enhance the overall economic resilience,and that different cities in each region should adopt targeted measures according to their own characteristics.

关 键 词：区域经济韧性 时空演变特征 Dagum基尼系数 长江流域 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]