近30年宁夏土地利用碳排放风险及影响因素  

Carbon Emission Risk and Influencing Factors of Land Use in Ningxia in Recent 30 Years

作　　者：杨思雨 贾科利[1] 李浩宇 Yang Siyu;Jia Keli;Li Haoyu(College of Geographical Sciences and Planning,Ningxia University,Yinchuan Ningxia 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学地理科学与规划学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2025年第1期38-43,共6页Territory & Natural Resources Study

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“旱寒灌区土地利用与土壤盐渍化风险互馈耦合关系研究——以银川平原为例”(42061047);宁夏自然科学基金“土地利用视角下宁夏碳排放效应及时空演变研究”(2022AAC03119)。

摘　　要：本文采用碳排放系数法和LMDI模型分解法,利用1990-2020年宁夏22个县区土地利用和能源消耗数据,分析了土地利用变化与碳排放风险及影响因素。结果表明,(1)1990-2020年宁夏建设用地、林地和水体面积显著增加,以建设用地面积增加最为突出,30年面积增加了15.77×10^(4)hm^(2);耕地和未利用土地面积先增加后减小、草地和面积不断减小,土地利用开发强度增大。(2)宁夏碳排放量呈显著增加趋势,净碳排放增加了4 669.25×10^(4)t,增幅448.69%。(3)宁夏土地利用碳排放风险逐步升高,空间上形成了沿黄县区碳排放风险高于中、南部县区的分布格局。(4)土地利用结构、土地碳排放强度、人均GDP和人口对碳排放的贡献率较大,促进了碳排放量的增加,而单位GDP用地强度对碳排放的贡献率最小,对碳排放起抑制作用。Based on the land use and energy consumption data of 22 counties in Ningxia from 1990 to 2020,this paper analyzes the risk and influencing factors of land use change and carbon emission by using carbon emission coefficient method and LMDI model decomposition method.The results show that,(1)the area of construction land,forest land and water body in Ningxia increased significantly,especially the area of construction land,which increased by 15.77×10^(4)hm^(2) from 1990 to 2020,and the area of cultivated land and unused land increased first and then decreased,grassland and area decreased continuously,and the intensity of land use development increased.(2)The Carbon emissions showed a significant increasing trend,the net carbon emissions of land use types in Ningxia increased by 4669.25×10^(4) t and had a growth rate of 448.69%.(3)The carbon emission risk of land use in Ningxia is gradually increasing,forming a spatial distribution pattern that the carbon emission risk in counties along the Yellow River was higher than that in central and southem counties.(4)Among these factors,land use structure,land carbon emission intensity,per capita GDP and population size have a greater contribution rate to carbon emissions,which promotes the increase of carbon emissions,while land use intensity per unit GDP has the smallest contribution rate to carbon emissions and inhibits carbon emissions.

关 键 词：土地利用 碳排放风险 LMDI模型 宁夏 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济] F205