1961—2020年陕南地区极端降水的时空变化特征  

Spatial-Temporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation in Southern Shaanxi During 1961-2020

作　　者：刘彦宏 李泽霖 张磊 张丁玲[1] LIU Yanhong;LI Zelin;ZHANG Lei;ZHANG Dingling(College of Sciences,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi,China;Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学理学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中国科学院生态环境研究中心,北京100085

出　　处：《西北林学院学报》2024年第6期207-215,共9页Journal of Northwest Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41605118)。

摘　　要：本研究基于9个ETCCDI极端气候指数,系统分析了1961—2020年陕南地区极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:1)陕南地区大部分极端降水指数的气候态空间分布与降水强度较为相似,从陕南西南部向东北递减,高值区位于大巴山南部,暴雨日数和5日最大降水在秦岭南坡出现了次高值区,而无雨日数和持续干期气候态空间分布则与之相反。2)陕南地区极端降水量及强度表现为区域加剧和缓解并存的趋势,无雨日数和持续干期则呈现显著增长趋势,其增速超过5和3 d/10 a,而持续湿期则呈现显著减小趋势,该地区将面临降水极端化和干湿交替加剧的挑战。3)近60 a来,各极端指数的年代际变化波动较大,除无雨日数和持续干期外,其余指数均在20世纪80年代达到峰值。进入21世纪,极端降水从“夏季型”转变为“秋季型”,商洛地区取代汉中地区成为极端降水贡献率最大的区域。Based on nine ETCCDI extreme climate indices,this study systematically analyzed the long-term spatial-temporal variation of extreme precipitation over Southern Shaanxi during 1961—2020.The results showed that 1)the climatological spatial distribution of most extreme precipitation indices in Southern Shaanxi was similar to the intensity of precipitation,decreasing from the southwestern of Southern Shaanxi to the northeast.The high value area was located in the southern part of Daba Mountains.Among them,R5 d and R50 mm were slightly different,appearing in the second high value area on the southern slope of the Qinling Mountains.However,the spatial distribution of R0 mm and CDD was opposite to the others.2)The extreme precipitation and precipitation intensity in Southern Shaanxi showed a trend of regional intensification and mitigation,R0 mm and CDD showed significant increasing trend,and the growth rate exceeded 5 d/10 a and 3 d/10 a,while CWD showed significant decline trend.This region will face the challenge of extreme precipitation and alternating intensification of dry and wet.3)In the past 60 years,the interdecadal variation of each extreme index fluctuated greatly,except for R0 mm and CDD,the other indices all reached their peak values in the 1980 s of the 20th century.In the 21st century,the extreme precipitation has changed from“summer type”to“autumn type”,and Shangluo had replaced Hanzhong as the region with the largest contribution rate of extreme precipitation.

关 键 词：气候变化 极端降水指数 时空分布 陕南地区 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]