基于InVEST与CA-Markov模型的鄱阳湖流域水源涵养模拟预测分析  

Simulation and prediction analysis of water conservation in Poyang Lake Basin based on InVEST and CA-Markov models

作　　者：傅春[1] 李帆[1] 刘业忠 陈毓迪 黄金燕 FU Chun;LI Fan;LIU Yezhong;CHEN Yudi;HUANG Jinyan(College of Architecture and Engineering,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学工程建设学院,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2024年第11期1513-1521,共9页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:18BGL187)。

摘　　要：为分析鄱阳湖流域水源涵养及自然发展下土地利用变化对水涵养的影响,利用生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs,InVEST)模型与元胞自动机-马尔可夫(cellular automata-Markov,CA-Markov)模型分析了鄱阳湖流域2000—2018年的水源涵养状况,并预测分析了2018—2035年的状况。结果表明:1)2000—2018年的鄱阳湖流域水源涵养总量变化与降雨量变化趋势的分布相似,其中2010年水源涵养量最大,2000年水源涵养量最小,从流失结果来看,自2015年后,流失量与降雨量大的变化趋势相反,这说明2015年后该区域的保水能力逐渐变小;2)2018—2035年间,研究区域的预测土地利用演化趋势与2010—2018年的演化趋势相同,区域内建设用地这一径流系数大的用地类型持续扩张,而利于水源涵养的林地逐年减少,2018—2035年间,在降雨不变的情况下,水源涵养逐年降低,流失量逐年增多,且水源涵养低值依旧聚集于冷点区。In order to analyze the water conservation and the impacts of land use changes under natural development on water conservation in Poyang Lake Basin,this paper uses integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs(InVEST)model and cellular automata-Markov(CA-Markov)model to analyze the water conservation status of Poyang Lake Basin from 2000 to 2018,and predict and analyze the situation of water conservation from 2018 to 2035.The results show that:1)The change trend and distribution of the total water conservation and rainfall in the Poyang Lake Basin from 2000 to 2018 were similar,among which the water conservation in 2010 was the largest,and the water conservation in 2000 was the smallest.From the soil and water loss results,the change trend of the water loss was opposite to that of rainfall after 2015,indicating that the water retention capacity of the region gradually decreased after 2015.2)From 2018 to 2035,the predicted land use evolution in the study area is the same as that of 2010 to 2018.Construction land,a land type with a large runoff coefficient,continues to expand,while forest land that is conducive to water conservation decreases year by year.From 2018 to 2035,with no change in rainfall,water conservation decreases year by year,the loss increases year by year,and the low value of water conservation is still clustered in the cold spot area.

关 键 词：水源涵养 土地利用 鄱阳湖流域 InVEST模型 CA-Markov模型 

分 类 号：Q145.2[生物学—生态学]