理解全球通货膨胀分化:全要素生产率的视角  

Understanding the Global Inflation Divergence:from the Perspective of Total Factor Productivity

作　　者：李连发[1] Li Lianfa

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《中山大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第6期378-389,共12页Journal of Sun Yat-sen University(Social Science Edition)

摘　　要：进入21世纪,全球主要经济体出现了通货膨胀分化的现象。通胀分化在2017年至2022年期间逐渐形成,并于2022年9月开始逐步进入缓和阶段。通胀分化前,2001—2017年期间,中国、英国、德国、美国和日本的全要素生产率均呈现正增长,累计增速介于3%至22%之间。2017年后全球通胀分化现象出现,在短期内,西方样本国家全要素生产率对核心通胀率的抑制作用呈现不同程度的弱化,各国核心通胀率随之上升,这些国家未来全要素生产率增长面临的不确定性加大。通胀分化的现象揭示了全要素生产率意义上的分化。与核心通胀率上升的西方样本国家相比,中国全要素生产率增长对核心通胀率抑制作用较强,中国未来全要素生产率增长更具确定性。面对通胀分化,在中国经济安全前提下,需要继续保持开放;开放是中国全要素生产率提高的推力,全要素生产率提升是中国价格稳定的长期保证。In the 21st century,a notable phenomenon of inflation divergence has emerged among major economies.Inflation divergence gradually formed from 2017 to 2022 and began to ease in September 2022.Before inflation divergence,from 2001 to 2017,the total factor productivity(TFP)of China,UK,Germany,US,and Japan all showed growth,with cumulative growth rates ranging from 3%to 22%.After the global inflation divergence phenomenon appeared in 2017,in the short term,the suppression of total factor productivity on core inflation rates in Western sample countries weakened to different degrees,and their core inflation rates rose accordingly.The uncertainty of total factor productivity growth in these countries will increase in the future.The inflation divergence phenomenon reveals the divergence in the sense of total factor productivity.Compared with the core inflation rate-rising Western sample countries,China’s total factor productivity growth has a stronger inhibitory effect on the core inflation rate,and China’s total factor productivity growth in the future is more certain.In the premise of China’s economic security,it is necessary to continue to keep an open-economy system;and opening up is the driving force for China’s improvement in total factor productivity which is the long-term guarantee of China’s price stability.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 核心通胀率 全要素生产率 格兰杰因果 

分 类 号：F821.5[经济管理—财政学]