数字化转型进程中国际贸易供应链韧性研究——基于不确定事件冲击下的网络结构视角  

Research on the Resilience of International Trade Supply Chains in the Process of Digital Transformation:A Network Structure Perspective Based on Uncertain Event Shocks

作　　者：张炜[1] 肖悦 王乃合 ZHANG Wei;XIAO Yue;WANG Naihe(School of Economics,Tianjin University of Commerce,Beichen 300400,Tianjin;School of Economics,Nankai University,Nankai 300110,Tianjin)

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学经济学院,天津300400 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300110

出　　处：《管理学刊》2024年第5期128-145,共18页Journal of Management

基　　金：天津市哲学社会科学重点规划项目(TJLJ20-003)。

摘　　要：不确定性事件频发使提高供应链韧性成为各国政府广泛关注的热点议题,数字化为提高供应链韧性带来了新的契机。全文基于不确定事件冲击下的网络结构视角,采用网络分析法将数字化转型对供应链韧性影响的阶段性演变进行可视化清晰呈现。结果表明:数字化以网络嵌入模式在转型不同阶段表现出与供应链韧性协同与异化并存的特征,且整体韧性的提升主要通过下游节点的数字化作用实现;数字溢出的“内向化”特征促使同区域供应链韧性水平趋同,且区域内的“蛛网式”结构使得经济体可以依托其他节点韧性优势实现整体网络链条韧性水平的提升,并逐渐向共生共存的生态系统转化;数字化对供应链韧性作用效果受到网络位置的影响,在不同网络位置中节点国家的风险补偿作用不同。随着转型进程的推进,数字化对网络核心节点国家风险缓释能力逐渐增强。我国应积极发挥区域供应链网络供需枢纽角色,依据各国数字化水平,差异化地实施风险规避与“链式”协同政策,以下游节点的数字化转型为突破口实现供应链网络韧性的提升。The frequent occurrence of uncertainty events makes improving supply chain resilience a hot topic widely concerned by governments,and digitization brings new opportunities for improving supply chain resilience.Based on the perspective of network structure under the impact of uncertain events,the paper adopts social network analysis to visualize the stage-by-stage evolution of the structural characteristics of supply chain network by digital transformation.The results are as below.Firstly,the digitization,in the form of network embeddedness,represent the characteristics of synergism and heterogeneity coexist with supply chain resilience at different stages of transformation and the improvement of overall resilience is mainly achieved through the digitization of downstream nodes.Secondly,the“inward-looking”feature of digital spillovers contributes to the convergence of supply chain resilience levels in the same region and the“cobweb”structure in the region enables the economy to rely on the resilience advantages of other nodes to improve the resilience level of the overall network chain,and the“cobweb”structure gradually transform into a symbiotic ecosystem.Thirdly,the effect of digitization on supply chain resilience is affected by the location of the network,and the risk compensation role of node countries is different in different network locations and the ability of digitization to mitigate the risk of the network core node countries is gradually enhanced.China should actively play the role of regional supply and demand hub of supply chain network,differentiate the implementation of risk avoidance and“chain”synergy policy according to the level of digitization of each country,and take the digital transformation of downstream nodes as a breakthrough to realize the improvement of supply chain network resilience.

关 键 词：数字化转型 国际贸易供应链韧性 不确定事件冲击 供应链网络 

分 类 号：F2[经济管理—国民经济] F12