Provincial-level analysis of electrification feasibility and climate policy interactions  

作　　者：Huihuang Wu Haozhe Yang Xiurong Hu Yuhan Zhou Xian Wang Junfeng Liu Ying Liu Shu Tao 

机构地区：[1]Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing,100871,China [2]Bren School of Environmental Science and Management,University of California,Santa Barbara,CA,93106,USA [3]College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing,211106,China [4]School of Statistics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing,100029,China

出　　处：《Environmental Science and Ecotechnology》2024年第6期286-293,共8页环境科学与生态技术（英文）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China(under award No.41821005 and 42077196);Ministry of Science and Technology of China(under award No.2023YFE0112900).

摘　　要：Improving electrification feasibility is essential for reducing emissions from non-electric energy sources,thereby enhancing air quality and public health.Concurrently,climate mitigation actions,such as carbon pricing policies,have significant potential to alleviate increasing carbon dioxide(CO_(2))and other co-emitted air pollutants.However,the interactions between climate policy and the improvement of electrification feasibility at the provincial level remain unclear,collectively impacting the net-zero transition of energy-intensive sectors.Here we combine a technologically rich economic-energy-environment model with air quality modeling across China to examine the health,climate,and economic implications of large-scale upgrades in electrification feasibility and climate policies from 2017 to 2030.The results indicate that advancing electrification feasibility,coupled with adopting carbon pricing policies,is likely to facilitate a transition towards electricity-dominant energy systems.Improved electrification feasibility is projected to yield a 7-25%increase in nationwide climate benefits and a 5-14%increase in health benefits by 2030.These incremental benefits,coupled with reduced economic costs,result in a 22-68%increase in net benefits.However,regionally,improvements in electrification feasibility will lead to heightened power demand and unintended emissions from electric energy production in certain provinces(e.g.,Nei Mongol)due to the coal-dominated power system.Additionally,in major coal-producing provinces like Shanxi and Shaanxi,enhanced electrification feasibility exacerbates the negative economic impacts of climate policies.This study provides quantitative insights into how improving electrification feasibility reshapes energy evolution and the benefit-cost profile of climate policy at the provincial level.The findings underscore the necessity of a well-designed compensation scheme between affected and unaffected provinces and coordinated emission mitigation across the power and other end-use sectors.

关 键 词：Climate policy Net benefits Electrification feasibility Health benefits Climate benefits 

分 类 号：X703[环境科学与工程—环境工程]