未来产业集群谁执牛耳?——基于复杂经济学的理论思考与政策建议  

Who Will Lead the Future Industrial Cluster?--Theoretical Thinking and Policy Suggestions Based on Complex Economics

作　　者：纪玉山[1] Ji Yushan(School of Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院,长春130012

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2024年第12期7-13,共7页Journal of Industrial Technology and Economy

基　　金：海南省哲学社会科学规划课题“新质生产力引领下的海南未来产业技术扩散与制度耦合”(项目编号:HNSK(ZC)24-137)。

摘　　要：未来产业集群是由多种未来产业构成的不断演化的动态复杂经济系统。决定未来产业发展的因素是多方面的,既有未来产业集群内部复杂的前沿技术关联和产业链因素,又有经济调节体制机制的杠杆作用,还有科技创新基础和文化环境,更有大国之间的相互竞争与合作。分析这样的复杂系统,不能不涉及复杂经济学的基本原理。从产业结构演化和技术创新的底层逻辑上看,生成式人工智能是未来产业集群发展的核心力量;从经济运行调节机制层面考察,有为政府“轻推的手”是不可或缺的经济杠杆;从国际竞争态势上分析,中美两个大国将共执牛耳,形成双寡头垄断格局。面对美国的疯狂打压,我国必须未雨绸缪,提前布局,构建一个相互连接、相互促进的,具有极强国际竞争力的未来产业集群生态系统。The future industrial cluster is an ever-evolving dynamic and complex economic system composed of various future industries.The factors determining the development of future industries are multifaceted,including not only the complex technological interrelations and industrial chain factors within the future industrial cluster,but also the leverage effect of economic regulation mechanisms,as well as the foundation of scientific and technological innovation and cultural environment.Moreover,the mutual competition and cooperation between major powers play a significant role.Analyzing such a complex system inevitably involves the basic principles of complexity economics.From the perspective of the underlying logic of industrial structure evolution and technological innovation,generative artificial intelligence is the core force driving the development of future industrial clusters;from the perspective of the economic operation regulation mechanism,the“invisible hand”of an active government is an indispensable economic lever;from the analysis of the international competitive landscape,China and the United States,as two major powers,will share the reins,forming a duopoly pattern.In the face of the intense suppression by the United States,our country must prepare for the future,plan ahead,and build a future industrial cluster ecosystem that is interconnected and mutually promoting,with strong international competitiveness.

关 键 词：未来产业 复杂经济学 生成式人工智能 大国竞争 有为政府 新质生产力 产业集群 双寡头垄断竞争格局 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F49