青年就业与经济复苏——结构性与随机性视角  

Youth Employment and Economic Recovery--Structural and Stochastic Perspectives

作　　者：范金 邓俊玮 张晓兰[2] Fan Jin;Deng Junwei;Zhang Xiaolan(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Economic Forecasting Department,The State Information Center of China,Beijing 100045,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037 [2]国家信息中心经济预测部,北京100045

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2024年第12期133-143,共11页Journal of Industrial Technology and Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘十四五’时期我国经济有效防范滞胀风险路径研究”(项目编号:21&ZD081);国家社会科学基金一般项目“RCEP框架下中国重点产业链东亚重构研究”(项目编号:22BGJ035)。

摘　　要：16~24岁青年失业率问题已成为当前经济复苏期的重要经济社会问题之一,是全面贯彻落实党的二十届三中全会精神和健全高质量充分就业促进机制必须面对的现实问题。本文以新冠肺炎疫情等引发的不确定性冲击为背景,通过构建随机可计算一般均衡模型,研究摩擦性、结构性以及周期性冲击对不同结构青年群体就业水平的影响,并模拟其就业的政策效果。本文发现:(1)摩擦性和结构性冲击是引起青年群体高失业率的重要原因,且青年群体对周期性尤其是投资需求冲击的抵抗能力较强;(2)不同受教育水平的青年群体面对疫情冲击时的就业变动存在差异,较高教育水平群体对结构性与投资需求冲击时表现出更强抵抗能力;(3)政策模拟显示,企业资助与扩岗补助政策均有助于提振就业,且低学历青年就业恢复能力更高。本文政策启示:(1)充分发挥政府的宏观调控作用,短期与长期工作并举,着力缓解青年结构性就业矛盾;(2)企业激励与青年个人提升并重,在推动经济复苏过程中,鼓励企业开发更多适合青年群体的就业岗位;(3)提振青年就业与保障青年民生并行,实施青年分类帮扶,兜牢青年民生底线。The issue of elevated unemployment rates among individuals aged 16~24 has emerged as a significant economic and social concern throughout the ongoing era of economic recovery,and it is a realistic problem that must be faced with the full implementation of the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and the improvement of high-quality and full employment promotion.Based on the background of uncertainty shocks caused by the COVID-19 epidemic,this paper constructs a stochastic computable general equilibrium model to study the impact of frictional,structural and cyclical shocks on the employment level of young people with different structures,and simulate the policy effects of their employment.Additionally,it simulates the potential outcomes of employment policies.The study concludes that frictional and structural shocks significantly contribute to the elevated levels of unemployment observed among youth demographics.Younger demographics exhibit greater resilience to cyclical shocks,particularly investment demand-related ones,but are more vulnerable to structural shocks.Furthermore,there are disparities in employment fluctuations among youth groups with varying levels of education in response to epidemic shocks,with those with higher education displaying more excellent resistance to structural and investment demand shocks.Lastly,the results of the policy simulation demonstrate that both the enterprise subsidy and job expansion subsidy policies positively impact the employment rate of young individuals,with the latter policy having a more pronounced effect.Moreover,young individuals with lower levels of education exhibit greater resilience in terms of employment.The policy ramifications of this paper are as follows:firstly,fully utilize the government's role in macroeconomic regulation and integrate short-term and long-term strategies.Additionally,our attention will be directed towards addressing the issue of unemployment among young individuals with little educational achievements.We wil

关 键 词：青年就业率 摩擦性失业 结构性失业 周期性失业 CGE模型 外部冲击 随机影响 就业政策 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济] F249.2[经济管理—国民经济]