地方财政风险测度与区域异质性分析  

Local Fiscal Risk Measurement and Regional Heterogeneity Analysis

作　　者：刘建民 张晓彤 刘晓函 吴金光 刘嘉意 LIU Jianmin;ZHANG Xiaotong;LIU Xiaohan;WU Jinguang;LIU Jiayi(School of Economics&Management,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha,Hunan410076,China;School of Finance,Hunan University of Finance and Economics,Changsha,Hunan 410205,China;Department of Fiscal Affairs,School of Medicine,Emory University,Atlanta,Georgia 30322,U.S.)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学经济与管理学院,湖南长沙410076 [2]湖南财政经济学院财政金融学院,湖南长沙410205 [3]埃默里大学医学院财务部,美国佐治亚州亚特兰大30322

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2024年第6期69-75,共7页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：湖南省哲学社会科学基金重大项目(22ZDAJ009);湘财教指〔2022〕75号阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：防范化解地方财政风险是我国目前财政工作的重点。为此,利用2015—2021年全国246个城市的财政数据,从地方财政内部运行风险、地方财政体制机制风险、地方财政信用风险及地方财政内部治理风险四个维度构建地方财政风险评价体系,以测度分析地方财政风险。结果显示:全国地方财政风险稳定在0.4左右,但区域差异显著。西北、华北、华中及东北地区的城市的财政风险水平显著上升,华东、华南和西南地区的城市的财政风险水平较低。沿海、新一线及省会城市财政风险水平相对较低,优于非沿海、非新一线及非省会城市。鉴于此,应构建区域财力协调机制,以助力我国实现地方财政高质量发展。Preventing and resolving local fiscal risks is the focus of China’s current fiscal work.Therefore,the fiscal data of 246 cities nationwide from 2015 to 2021 are used to construct a local fiscal risk evaluation system to measure and analyse local fiscal risk from four dimensions:local fiscal internal operation risk,local fiscal institutional mechanism risk,local fiscal credit risk and local fiscal internal governance risk.The results show that the local financial risk is stable at around 0.4 nationwide,but with significant regional differences.The fiscal risk of cities in Northwest,North,Central and Northeast China has increased significantly,while the level of fiscal risk of cities in East,South and Southwest China is lower.Coastal,new first-tier and provincial capital cities have relatively low fiscal risks,which are better than non-coastal,non-new first-tier and non-provincial capital cities.Given this,a regional fiscal coordination mechanism should be constructed.The article provides references for China to realize the high-quality development of local finance.

关 键 词：地方财政风险 测度指标 区域异质性 

分 类 号：F810.7[经济管理—财政学] F812.7