中国乡村生态韧性时空演变特征及影响因素探究  

Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of rural ecological resilience in China

作　　者：任洪杰 李辉尚[1] REN Hongjie;LI Huishang(Institute of Agricultural Information,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Big Data,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业农村部农业大数据重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2024年第11期1915-1923,共9页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073131);中国农业科学院创新工程(CAAS-AII-2016);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(JBYW-AII-2022-10,JBYW-AII-2021-41)资助。

摘　　要：基于韧性治理理论,选取2004—2021年中国30个省(市)的面板数据,从压力维度、状态维度和响应维度3个方面出发构建评价指标,客观测度与系统刻画了中国乡村生态韧性的时空演变特征,并运用空间杜宾模型实证探究了影响乡村生态韧性的因素。结果表明:(1)全国乡村生态韧性虽呈上升趋势,但整体仍处于较低水平,呈现粮食主销区>粮食主产区>粮食产销平衡区的特征。(2)乡村生态韧性得分在考察期内呈现“曲线向右运动、右尾拉长、宽度加大”的特点,且通过Dagum基尼系数分解区域差距发现,地区总体差异不严峻,并呈现持续缩小态势。(3)通过空间外溢效应分解发现,环境规制强度显著正向影响乡村生态韧性水平,且存在显著负向溢出效应;城镇化率显著负向影响乡村生态韧性水平,并存在显著正向溢出效应;农村经济增长水平及政府财政支农力度分别正向和负向影响乡村生态韧性,但结果并不显著,从间接效应来看,两者均存在显著的负向溢出效应。Based on the theory of resilience governance,this paper utilizes panel data from 30 provinces(cities)in China from 2004 to 2021 to construct evaluation indices from the pressure,state,and response dimensions.It objectively measures and systematically portrays the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of China’s rural ecological resilience,employing the spatial Durbin model to empirically explore the factors influencing rural ecological resilience.The findings indicate that:(1)Although the overall ecological resilience of rural areas nationwide shows an upward trend,it remains at a low level,exhibiting the pattern of main grain marketing areas>main grain producing areas>areas with balanced grain production and marketing.(2)The rural ecological resilience scores display the characteristics of“the curve shifts rightward,the right tail extends,and the width broadens”during the study period.Decomposition of regional disparities using the Dagum Gini coefficient reveals that overall regional differences are not severe and show a persistent trend of narrowing.(3)Analysis of spatial spillover effects indicates that the intensity of environmental regulation significantly and positively influences rural ecological resilience,accompanied by a significant negative spillover effect.Conversely,the urbanization rate significantly and negatively impacts rural ecological resilience,with a significant positive spillover effect.The levels of rural economic growth and government financial support for agriculture also influence rural ecological resilience positively and negatively,respectively,though these effects are not statistically significant.Both factors exhibit significant negative spillover effects in terms of indirect influence.

关 键 词：乡村生态 韧性 时空演变 影响因素 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F323.22[经济管理—产业经济]