海南省碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系研究——基于数量脱钩与速度脱钩双视角  

Study on the Decoupling Relationship Between Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Hainan Province Based on the Dual Perspectives of Quantity Decoupling and Speed Decoupling

作　　者：党丹妮 李敏纳[1] 王杰 孔云洁 李坤 Dang Danni;Li Minna;Wang Jie;Kong Yunjie;Li Kun(School of Economics and Management,Hainan Normal University,Haikou 571158,Hainan,China;School of Geography and Environmental Science,Hainan Normal University,Haikou 571158,Hainan,China)

机构地区：[1]海南师范大学经济与管理学院,海南海口571158 [2]海南师范大学地理与环境科学学院,海南海口571158

出　　处：《绿色科技》2024年第19期258-263,278,共7页Journal of Green Science and Technology

摘　　要：基于2005-2022年海南省统计数据,在对海南省碳排放量进行测算和分析的基础上,从数量脱钩和速度脱钩2个视角分别采用EKC模型和Tapio脱钩模型对海南省碳排放与经济增长之间的关系进行了脱钩分析。结果表明:①海南省碳排放总量呈现波动上升的“N”形曲线特征,第二产业为碳排放的第一大来源,从能源结构上看,石油消费带来的碳排放量比重最高,电力比重近年来有所上涨;②从数量脱钩来看,海南省碳排放与经济增长之间呈倒“U”形关系,符合EKC假说,目前已越过极值点,海南省经济持续增长将有利于碳排放量下降;③从速度脱钩来看,海南省碳排放与经济增长总体上呈现出弱脱钩状态,即经济增速大于碳排放增速;④目前海南省碳排放与经济增长已逐渐实现数量和速度的双脱钩。Based on the statistical data of Hainan Province from 2005 to 2022,this paper uses the EKC model and the Tapio decoupling model to decouple the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Hain-an Province from the perspectives of quantity decoupling and speed decoupling.The results show that:①the total carbon emissions of Hainan Province shows the characteristics of N-shaped curves with fluctuations and increases,and the secondary industry is the largest source of carbon emissions.From the perspective of energy structure,the proportion of carbon emissions caused by oil consumption is the highest,and the proportion of electricity has in-creased in recent years;②from the perspective of quantitative decoupling,there is an inverted"U"shaped rela-tionship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Hainan Province,which is in line with the EKC hy-pothesis,and has crossed the extreme point.The sustained economic growth of Hainan Province will be conducive to the decline of carbon emissions;③from the perspective of speed decoupling,Hainan Province's carbon emis-sions and economic growth generally show a weak decoupling state,that is,the economic growth rate is greater than the carbon emission growth rate;④at present,Hainan Province's carbon emissions and economic growth have gradually achieved a double decoupling of quantity and speed.

关 键 词：碳排放 数量脱钩 速度脱钩 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]