城镇居民收入对中超联赛上座人数的影响——基于向量自回归模型的实证研究  

The Effect of Urban Residents’Income on the Number of Attendances of Chinese Football Super League Matches——Empirical Study Based on VAR Model

作　　者：黄永正[1] HUANG Yongzheng(School of Physical Education,Shaoguan University,Shaoguan 5120025,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]韶关学院体育学院,广东韶关512005

出　　处：《韶关学院学报》2024年第9期69-75,共7页Journal of Shaoguan University

基　　金：韶关市哲学社会科学规划项目(W2022031)。

摘　　要：为促进我国足球产业的发展,选择2004-2019年中超联赛上座人数和城镇居民可支配收入的时间序列数据,运用向量自回归模型探究了城镇居民可支配收入对中超联赛场均上座人数影响,结果发现:(1)对上座人数和居民收入取对数后,两者的原始数据都是属于平稳序列.向量自回归模型的最优滞后阶数是1阶,模型结果显示居民收入和上座人数两者存在协整关系.(2)两者存在单项因果关系,居民收入是上座人数的格兰杰原因,说明居民收入对上座人数有一定预测作用.(3)居民收入对上座人数有正向冲击,而上座人数对自身的冲击则波动较大.方差分解结果显示,居民收入对上座人数的贡献逐步提升,10期后接近20%;而上座人数自身的贡献率较大,保持在85%以上.根据研究结果,提出了打造联赛口碑,提升联赛质量,增加居民可支配收入,引导扩大体育消费等策略,以期为提高中超联赛办赛水平提供参考.In order to promote the development of China’s soccer industry,the attendance of Chinese Football Super League and disposable income of urban residents from 2004-2019 time series were selected,and the VAR model was used to investigate the impact of urban residents’disposable income on the average attendance of the Chinese Football Super League,and the results found that:(1)after taking the logarithm of the income and the attendance number,both of the original data belonged to the stationary series.The optimal lag order of the VAR model is order 1,and the model results show that there is a co-integration relationship between income and attendance number.(2)There is a mono-causal relationship between income and attendance number,and income is the Granger cause of attendance number,which indicates that income has a certain predictive effect on attendance number.(3)Income has a positive shock to attendance number,while attendance number has a fluctuating shock to itself.The results of variance decomposition show that the contribution of income to attendance number gradually increases,approaching 20% after 10 periods;while the contribution of attendance number itself is larger,remaining above 85%.Based on the results of the study,strategies such as building the League’s reputation,improving the quality of the League,increasing the disposable income of residents,and guiding the expansion of sports consumption are proposed,with a view to providing references for improving the level of the Chinese Football Super League’s game running.

关 键 词：中超联赛 可支配收入 向量自回归模型 协整关系 方差分解 

分 类 号：G843[文化科学—体育训练]