北大西洋涛动对长江源区径流的影响  

Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Runoff in the Source Region of the Yangtze River

作　　者：邵骏 卢满生 谢珊 钱晓燕 龚德林 杨坤 SHAO Jun;LU Man-sheng;XIE Shan;QIAN Xiao-yan;GONG De-lin;YANG Kun(Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;Wuhan Institute of Water Affairs Science Research,Wuhan 430014,China)

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会水文局,武汉430010 [2]武汉市水务科学研究院,武汉430014

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2024年第11期181-188,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0203)。

摘　　要：以长江源区为研究区域,采用沱沱河站、直门达站实测径流,利用北大西洋涛动指数(NAOI)分析北大西洋涛动(NAO)的强度,研究NAO对两站冬季、夏季及全年径流丰枯变化的影响,采用相关分析和交叉小波变换分析NAO与两站径流的多尺度相关特性,从海-气耦合影响大气环流角度分析NAO对长江源区径流的可能影响机制。研究结果表明,长江源区冬季径流受NAO影响较大,2000年之前NAO强年对应径流偏枯概率较大,NAO弱年对应径流偏丰概率略大;夏季径流受长江源区气温影响更为显著,对于NAO强弱的响应不如冬季明显。NAOI与长江源区沱沱河站、直门达站径流在年代际变化规律上具有很好的趋同性,而对于年际或更短时间尺度上的相关关系不甚密切。沱沱河站、直门达站月径流与NAOI两者之间在整个1960-2020年时间轴上具有8~16个月时间尺度上的共振周期。两站与NAOI分别在1970年代、1980年代之前呈现同频同位相变化态势;之后呈现反位相变化态势。分析其作用机制可知,NAO作为北大西洋地区最重要的气候模态,通过大气遥相关和Rossby波列直接影响季风和西风带的强弱,进而调整青藏高原上空水汽输送和辐合、辐散场的分布,从而影响长江源区降水和径流的时空分布。Based on runoff series from the Tuotuohe and Zhimenda hydrological stations,we use the North Atlantic Oscillation Index(NAOI)to analyze the intensity of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and the impact of NAO on winter,summer,and annual runoff at the two stations.The impact of changes in wet and dry conditions was analyzed using correlation analysis and cross-wavelet transform to examine the multi-scale correlation characteristics between the NAO and runoff.The possible impact of NAO on runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River was also analyzed from the perspective of sea-atmosphere coupling affecting atmospheric circulation mechanisms.The research results showed that winter runoff was greatly affected by NAO.Before 2000,strong NAO years corresponded to relatively lower runoff probabilities,while weak NAO years corresponded to slightly higher runoff probabilities.Summer runoff was more significantly affected by the temperature in the source region of the Yangtze River.In summer,the response to the strength of NAO was not as obvious as in winter.The NAOI and the runoff at the Tuotuohe and Zhimenda hydrological stations showed good convergence in inter-decadal variation,but there was no close relationship on inter-annual or shorter time scales.There was a resonance cycle between monthly runoff and the NAOI on a time scale of 8-16 months throughout the entire period from 1960 to 2020.Before the 1970s and 1980s,the two stations and the NAOI showed similar frequency and phase changes;after that,they exhibited opposite phase changes.The North Atlantic Oscillation,as the most important climate mode in the North Atlantic region,directly affects the strength of the monsoon and westerly winds through atmospheric teleconnection and Rossby Waves,and then adjusts the water vapor transport over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,thereby affecting the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation and runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River.

关 键 词：北大西洋涛动 径流 相关分析 交叉小波分析 长江源区 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] TV211[水利工程—水文学及水资源]