优化的CREAM失误概率预测法在特种印刷企业的应用  

Application Concerning Improved CREAM in Special Printing Enterprise

作　　者：楚作东 何叶 徐文庆 邓利民[1,2] 彭敏君 CHU Zuodong;HE Ye;XU Wenqing;DENG Limin;PENG Minjun(Sichuan Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Chengdu Sichuan 610045,China;Major Hazard Measurement and Control Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu Sichuan 610045,China;Chengdu Banknote Printing Corporation,Chengdu Sichuan 611100,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省安全科学技术研究院,四川成都610045 [2]重大危险源测控四川省重点实验室,四川成都610045 [3]成都印钞有限公司,四川成都611100

出　　处：《安全》2024年第11期25-30,共6页Safety & Security

基　　金：四川省重点研发计划(2023YF0415)。

摘　　要：为弥补认知可靠性与失误分析法(CREAM)只能评估某项工作平均作业失误概率的缺陷,提出优化的CREAM,用于预测具体人员从事某项具体工作的失误概率。将生理和心理因素纳入人因可靠性评估体系,采用实验性测量手段予以表征,从而建立人内在因素权重因子、量化生理和心理因素对认知功能失误概率的影响,预测各作业步骤和整个作业过程的失误概率。将上述方法应用于某特种印刷企业的关键作业失误概率预测,结果显示:操作工的作业失误概率预测值范围为3.1×10^(-4)~9.6×10^(-2),且预测值与操作工目标作业的日常违章次数有关联性,证明优化后的CREAM具有可靠性。To fill the gap of the cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)method,which can only evaluate the average human error probability(HEP)of a certain task,an improved CREAM method was proposed to predict the HEP of a personnel engaged in a specific task.In order to quantify the impact of physiological and psychological factors on the probability of cognitive function errors,and predict the HEP concerning each task step and the entire task process,physiological and psychological factors assessed through experimental measurement were brought into the human reliability assessment system,thus,weight factors for human intrinsic factors were established.The above method was applied to predict the HEP of key job in a certain special printing enterprise,and the results showed that the HEP of operators ranged from 3.1×10^(-4)to 9.6×10^(-2)and there was a correlation between the predicted HEP and the number of daily violations in the target operation.The improved CREAM was proved to be reliable.

关 键 词：认知可靠性与失误分析法(CREAM) 失误概率(HEP) 生理因素 心理因素 人因可靠性 

分 类 号：X914[环境科学与工程—安全科学]