居民家庭借贷行为的消费效应分析  

Consumption Effect of Resident Household Loaning Behavior

作　　者：刘书彤 仇佳慧 LIU Shutong;QIU Jiahui(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2024年第6期43-57,共15页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：山东省人文社会科学课题“农村低收入群体收入增长与消费提振问题研究”(2022-YYJJ-09)。

摘　　要：扩大内需、释放消费潜力是促进经济持续健康发展的重要内容。从居民主观心理感受、努力程度两个方面分析借贷对消费的作用机制,运用固定效应、工具变量、内生转换模型等方法,评估借贷行为对居民消费的作用效果,实证分析了居民家庭借贷行为对家庭消费的影响。实证结果显示,借贷行为显著提高了家庭消费水平,在考虑潜在的内生性问题和进行一系列稳健性检验之后,研究结论依然成立。机制分析结果显示,借贷行为通过降低主观心理满足度、提高个体努力程度等渠道,来增加家庭消费支出。异质性分析结果表明,借贷行为对居民家庭发展、享受型消费的影响更大,对居民家庭生产型消费的影响较小,房屋借贷对家庭消费的提升作用更明显。以上研究为理解家庭借贷的消费促进作用提供新的经验依据,为政府普及消费信贷、扩大内需提供理论依据,同时为相关部门制定提振消费的政策提供新参考。Expanding domestic demand and unleashing consumption potential are important contents in promoting sustainable and healthy economic development.From the two aspects of resident subjective psychological feeling and resident effort degree,this study analyzes the action mechanism of loaning on consumption,evaluates the action effect of loaning behavior on resident consumption by using such methods as fixed effect,instrumental variable and endogenous transformation model,and empirically analyzes the impact of resident household loaning behavior on household consumption.The empirical results show that loaning behavior significantly improves household consumption levels,and the research conclusions still hold true after potential endogeneity issues are considered and a series of robustness tests are conducted.The mechanism analysis results show that loaning behavior increases household consumption expenditure through such channels as reducing subjective psychological satisfaction and increasing individual effort degree.The heterogeneity analysis results indicate that loaning behavior has a greater impact on household-development and enjoyment-oriented consumption,but a smaller impact on household production-oriented consumption,while housing loaning has a more significant effect on promoting household consumption.The above research conclusions provide a new empirical basis for understanding the consumption-promoting effect of household loaning,provide a theoretical basis for the government to popularize consumption credit and expand domestic demand,and meanwhile provide a new reference for relevant departments to formulate consumption-boosting policies.

关 键 词：借贷行为 消费支出 扩大内需 幸福感 消费类型 

分 类 号：F830.5[经济管理—金融学]