珠江流域枯季中长期水文预报方法探讨  

Discussion on the medium and long-term hydrological forecasting method in dry seasons of the Pearl River Basin

作　　者：钱燕[1] 蓝羽栖 QIAN Yan;LAN Yuxi(Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Pearl River Water Resources Commissionof the Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611)

机构地区：[1]水利部珠江水利委员会水文局,广州510611

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2024年第11期17-22,共6页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022038);国家自然科学基金重点项目(52439002)。

摘　　要：中长期水文预报是开展水量调度工作的重要环节之一。目前珠江流域枯季中长期水文预报的主要方法有6种,分别为历史演变法、均生函数法、周期均值迭加法、马尔科夫预测模型、多元逐步回归和随机森林模型。对珠江流域过去所有中长期水文预报方法进行归纳总结,介绍其基本概念及模型原理,结合实际对各种方法作进一步的讨论分析,以期提高中长期水文预报的精度。The medium and long-term runoff forecast is one of the important parts of the water regulation.At present,there are 6 main methods applied to the medium and long-term hydrological forecasting in the Pearl River Basin in dry season,which are the historical evolution method,mean generation function,periodic mean superposition analysis,Markov forecasting model,multivariate stepwise regression and the random forest model.This paper summarizes all the medium and long-term hydrological forecasting methods in the the Pearl River basin in the past,introduces their basic concepts and model principles,and further discusses and analyzes various methods in combination with the actual situation to improve the accuracy of medium and longterm hydrological forecasting.

关 键 词：珠江流域 中长期水文预报 预报方法 

分 类 号：P338.2[天文地球—水文科学]