经济发展与空气质量耦合协调度评价、时空特征及驱动因素--基于京津冀城市群的实证分析  

Evaluation of Coupling Coordination Degree between Economic Development and Air Quality,Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors:Empirical Analysis Based on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei City Cluster

作　　者：李砚忠 韩熙烁 LI Yanzhong;HAN Xishuo(College of Humanities and Social Sciences,Agricultural University of Hebei,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学人文社会科学学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《南海学刊》2024年第6期67-80,共14页The Journal of South China Sea Studies

基　　金：河北省教育厅人文社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(ZD202106)。

摘　　要：绿色发展是实现经济高质量发展的必然要求。京津冀城市群经历竞争、合作阶段,现逐渐迈向高质量协同发展。基于修正的耦合协调度模型评价2014—2022年京津冀城市群经济发展与空气质量的耦合协调度,运用空间自相关分析和灰色关联度模型揭示其空间集聚性与驱动因素。结果发现:京津冀城市群经济发展水平极化效应明显,北京市的经济发展水平明显突出;耦合协调度发展水平在时间上呈现波浪式的阶段性发展态势,在空间上呈现多中心高地异质性发展;耦合协调水平呈空间正相关性,形成了地理上的空间集聚效应,以低-低集聚为主,仅有北京市和天津市为高-高集聚;驱动因素关联性较好,关联度从大到小依次为市场化水平、人口城市化水平、地区消费水平、交通水平、政府重视程度、创新水平。建议考虑区域异质性,因地制宜推动经济发展与空气质量的有效协同;考虑空间网络化,构建一体化监测体系促进经济发展与空气质量的持续协同;考虑系统协调性,产业体系绿色低碳化增强经济发展与空气质量的纵深协同。Green development is an inevitable requirement for high-quality economic development.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster has experienced stages of competition and cooperation,and is now gradually moving toward high-quality coordinated development.Based on the modified coupling coordination degree model,the coupling coordination degree between economic development and air quality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei City cluster during 2014-2022 was evaluated.Spatial autocorrelation analysis and grey correlation degree model were used to reveal the spatial agglomeration and driving factors.The results show that the polarization effect of the economic development level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster is obvious,and the economic development level of Beijing is obvious.The development level of the coupling coordination degree presents a wavy stage development trend in time,and a heterogeneous development in space.The coupling coordination level showed a positive spatial correlation,forming a spatial agglomeration effect in geography,mainly low-low agglomeration,and only Beijing and Tianjin were high-high agglomeration.The correlation of driving factors is good,and the correlation degree from large to small is the marketization level,the population urbanization level,the regional consumption level,the traffic level,the government importance,and the innovation level.It is suggested to consider regional heterogeneity and promote the effective coordination between economic development and air quality according to local conditions.Considering spatial networking,building an integrated monitoring system to promote continuous coordination between economic development and air quality;Considering the coordination of the system,the green and low-carbon industrial system enhances the deep coordination between economic development and air quality.

关 键 词：京津冀城市群 绿色发展 经济发展 空气质量 耦合协调度 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]