云南城市水源地降水特征及变化趋势研究——以松华坝水库为例  

Analysis on precipitation characteristic and change trend of Yunnan urban water source:a case study of Songhuaba Reservoir

作　　者：段顺琼 陈小强 韩喆 王静 DUAN Shunqiong;CHEN Xiaoqiang;HAN Zhe;WANG Jing(Kunming Songhuaba Reservoir Management Office,Kunming 650201,Yunnan,China;Yunnan Institute of Water&Hydropower Engineering Investigation,Design and Research,Kunming Branch,Kunming 65000,Yunnan,China;College of Water Conservancy,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650201,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明市松华坝水库管理处,云南昆明650201 [2]云南省丽江市水利水电勘测设计研究院昆明分院,云南昆明65000 [3]云南农业大学水利学院,云南昆明650201

出　　处：《水利发展研究》2024年第10期89-95,共7页Water Resources Development Research

摘　　要：昆明是水资源严重短缺的城市,随着昆明城市发展,水资源供需矛盾突出,而松华坝水库是昆明市主城区主要饮用水水源地,其降水量的大小直接关系到昆明城市供水安全。基于松华坝水库1982—2023年降水数据,采用回归分析方法、Mann-Kendall检验方法、小波分析方法、R/S分析等方法分析松华坝水库的降水特征及变化趋势,结果表明:松华坝水库年际降水量变化较大;年内降水量分配不均,且降水高度集中在主汛期,后汛期降水偏少;松华坝水库降水量年际变化具有明显的周期性,存在6a、16a、33a左右的周期;松华坝水库降水存在明显的Hurst现象,未来年降水量将出现继1982—2023年以来微弱减少的趋势,且减少的趋势持续性较弱。通过开展云南城市水源地的降水特征及变化趋势研究,以期为水库型水源地运行管理和水资源有效利用提供参考。Kunming is a city with severe water shortage.With the development of Kunming,the contradiction between water supply and demand has become prominent.The Songhuaba Reservoir is the main drinking water source in the main urban area of Kunming,and its precipitation directly affects the safety of Kunming's urban water supply.Based on the pre-cipitation data of Songhuaba Reservoir from 1982 to 2023,regression analysis,Mann Kendall test,wavelet analysis,R/S analysis and other methods are used to analyze the precipitation characteristics and trends of Songhuaba Reservoir.The results show that the interannual precipitation of Songhuaba Reservoir varies greatly.The distribution of precipitation within the year is uneven,and the precipitation is highly concentrated during the main flood season,with less precipitation during the later flood season.Meanwhile,the interannual variation of precipitation in Songhuaba Reservoir exhibits significant periodicity,with periods of around 6a,16a,and 33 years.There is a significant Hurst phenomenon in the precipitation of Songhuaba Reservoir,and the future annual precipitation is predicted to show a slight decrease trend since 1982-2023,with weak sustainability of the decrease trend.By conducting research on the precipitation characteristics and trends of urban water sources in Yunnan,this article aims to provide reference for the operation and management of reservoir type wa-ter sources and the effective utilization of water resources.

关 键 词：云南城市水源地 松华坝水库 降水量 变化特征 变化趋势 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]