中国大豆生产时空演变格局的影响因素与优化对策研究  

Influencing Factors and Optimization Countermeasures of Spatial and Temporal Evolution Patterns of Soybean Production in China

作　　者：李治 何小田 LI Zhi;HE Xiaotian(Center for Grain Economic Research,Henan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]河南工业大学粮食经济研究中心,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《大豆科学》2024年第6期782-792,共11页Soybean Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20CJY054);河南省软科学研究计划项目(242400410591)。

摘　　要：为精准把握中国大豆生产空间格局演变规律,识别大豆生产关键制约因素,完善大豆空间布局,本研究基于1985—2022年中国大豆生产省级面板数据,运用ArcGIS分析大豆生产时空演变特征,并构建空间杜宾模型,实证分析中国大豆生产空间格局变化的影响因素,并提出优化我国大豆生产布局的对策建议。结果表明:(1)我国大豆产量总体上呈阶段性增长态势,且以“区域集中、全国分散”特征分布;(2)在空间格局上,我国大豆产量呈“东北集中、西南扩散”趋势,播种面积高值区逐步向中部和西部地区转移;(3)实证结果表明,城镇化水平、单位面积农机总动力、技术与政策因素对大豆生产具有显著影响,并且平均降雨、城镇化水平、政策因素等对大豆生产具有正向的直接效应。由此提出应根据大豆生产格局演变规律整合大豆区域布局,加强科技创新能力,提高规模化种植水平,提升防灾减灾能力等政策建议,从而优化大豆生产空间布局。研究结果对保障我国粮食安全具有重要意义。In order to accurately grasp the evolution of spatial pattern of China’s soybean production,identify the key constraints of soybean production,and improve the spatial layout of soybean,this study analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of soybean production based on the provincial panel data of China’s soybean production in the period of 1985-2022 by using ArcGIS and constructed the spatial Durbin model,empirically analyzed the influencing factors of the changes in spatial pattern of China’s soybean production,and proposed countermeasures to optimize the spatial layout of China’s soybean production.The results showed:(1)China’s soybean production in general was a phased growth trend,and‘regional concentration-national decentralization’characteristics of the distribution;(2)In the spatial pattern,China’s soybean production was‘concentrated in the northeast-southwest of the diffusion’trend,the high value of sown area area gradually shifted to the central and western regions;(3)The empirical results showed that the level of urbanization,total power of farm machinery per unit area,technology and policy factors had a significant effect on soybean production and the average rainfall,level of urbanization and policy factors had a positive direct effect on soybean production.It was thus proposed that the spatial layout of soybean production should be optimized by integrating the regional layout of soybean according to the law of evolution of soybean production pattern,strengthening the scientific and technological innovation capacity,improving the level of large-scale cultivation,and upgrading the capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation,and other policy recommendations.The results of the study are of great significance for guaranteeing China’s food security.

关 键 词：大豆生产 时空演变 影响因素 空间计量模型 空间相关性 

分 类 号：F326.12[经济管理—产业经济] F224