城镇燃气管道第三方破坏风险评价方法综述  

Review of Third-party Damage Risk Assessment Methods for Urban Gas Pipelines

作　　者：周建东 张炜健 李春沂 李德光 苏荷欣 任满意 周蕾 薄叶会 唐建峰[2] ZHOU Jiandong;ZHANG Weijian;LI Chunyi;LI Deguang;SU Hexin;REN Manyi;ZHOU Lei;BO Yehui;TANG Jianfeng

机构地区：[1]中石油昆仑燃气有限公司山东分公司,山东济南250000 [2]中国石油大学(华东)储运与建筑工程学院,山东青岛266580 [3]中石油天然气销售公司第一质量安全环保监督中心,北京100000 [4]中国石油天然气销售公司山东公司,山东济南250000

出　　处：《煤气与热力》2024年第11期I0025-I0030,共6页Gas & Heat

摘　　要：介绍目前用于城镇燃气管道第三方破坏的风险评价方法的研究现状并进行展望。我国城镇燃气管道数字化尚待完善,考虑到风险评价的可操作性及经济性,半定量与定量结合的城镇燃气管道第三方破坏风险评价方法已得到广泛应用。随着管道数字化的建设,全面精准的管道信息数据库得以构建,以概率风险评价法和贝叶斯网络模型为主的城镇燃气管道第三方破坏定量风险评价方法的研究日趋完善与深入。在定量风险评价方法的基础上,BP神经网络、物元可拓模型、大数据技术等方法将在城镇燃气管道第三方破坏的风险评价研究中具有广泛的应用前景。The current research status and prospects of risk assessment methods for third-party damage of urban gas pipelines are introduced.The digitalization of urban gas pipelines in China needs to be improved.Considering the operability and economy of risk assessment,the third-party damage risk assessment method that combines semi-quantitative and quantitative approaches has been widely applied for urban gas pipelines.With the construction of pipeline digitization,a comprehensive and accurate pipeline information database has been built.The research on quantitative risk assessment methods for third-party damage of urban gas pipelines,mainly based on probability risk assessment and Bayesian network models,is becoming increasingly perfect and in-depth.On the basis of quantitative risk assessment methods,BP neural network,matter-element extension model,big data technology and other methods will have a wide application prospect in the risk assessment of third-party damage to urban gas pipelines.

关 键 词：城镇燃气管道 第三方破坏 风险评价 

分 类 号：TU996.8[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]