网球比赛的走势预测  

Trend Prediction of Tennis Matches

作　　者：陈佳慧 王琮蓉 蒋洪涛 李韶伟 Chen Jiahui;Wang Congrong;Jiang Hongtao;Li Shaowei(School of Electronics and Information Engineering,Taizhou University,Taizhou 318000,China)

机构地区：[1]台州学院电子与信息工程学院,浙江台州318000

出　　处：《台州学院学报》2024年第6期8-13,35,共7页Journal of Taizhou University

摘　　要：以2023年温布尔登网球锦标赛的比赛数据为例,利用因子分析和逻辑回归方法刻画了球员“状态”的变化并预测网球比赛的走势。首先,确定9个评价指标,运用主成分分析法从中提取出4个共性因子,实现了球员“状态”的可视化;其次,采用游程检验方法检验比赛的随机性,证明球员“状态”决定了比赛的走势;最后,对“关键点”数据集进行斯皮尔曼相关分析,并运用逐步剔除回归分析法构建模型,预测比赛走势。Taking the match data of 2023 Wimbledon Tennis Championship as an example,the factor analysis and logistic regression method have been employed to describe the change of players'"state"and predict the trend of the match.Firstly,9 evaluation indexes are determined,of which 4 ones are extracted as common factors by principal component analysis to realize the visualization of players'"state".Secondly,the randomness of the game is tested by the run test method,and the"state"of the players determines the trend of the game.Finally,Spearman correlation analysis is carried out on the"key points"data set,and stepwise elimination regression analysis is used to build a model to predict the trend of the game.

关 键 词：因子分析 游程检验 相关性检验 回归模型 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计] G845[理学—数学]