公共服务对农业转移人口落户意愿的影响研究——基于户籍门槛的调节效应视角  

The Influence of Public Services on the Settlement Intentions of Rural-Urban Migrants——A Perspective Based on the Regulatory Effect of Household Registration Threshold

作　　者：刘丰睿 辛冲冲 LIU Fengrui;XIN Chongchong

机构地区：[1]北京大学人口研究所 [2]北京市社会科学院

出　　处：《湖北民族大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第6期86-97,共12页Journal of Hubei Minzu University：Philosophy and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“生命历程视角下农民工子女教育问题研究”(22ASH015)。

摘　　要：农业转移人口市民化是中国推动新型城镇化的重要任务,对实现内循环和城乡要素平等交换具有深远意义。理论上,公共服务的改善有助于增强农业转移人口的城市落户意愿,但户籍制度的长期存在使实际情况复杂多变,制约了以人为本的城镇化进程。基于2017年中国流动人口动态监测数据和120个地市的匹配数据,文章运用Probit模型和PSM倾向得分匹配法,从户籍门槛调节效应视角研究了公共服务对农业转移人口落户意愿的影响。结果表明:尽管公共服务能够有效提升落户意愿,但户籍制度会限制农业转移人口均等享有公共服务,从而削弱了其吸引力。进一步研究发现,户籍门槛对中青年、省内独自流动以及超大特大城市的农业转移人口影响更为显著。基于此,文章提出优化财政转移支付与区域协作、提升公共服务均等化、深化户籍制度改革、建立健全基于居住证的公共服务机制,并因地制宜、因人施策,以推动农业转移人口市民化和新型城镇化高质量发展。The urbanization of rural-urban migrants is a crucial task in advancing China's new urbanization,with profound implications for achieving internal circulation,equal exchange of urban and rural factors,etc.Theoretically,improving public services can enhance the willingness of rural-urban migrants to settle in cities.However,the long-standing household registration system may complicate the actual situation,restricting the progress of“people-oriented”new urbanization.Based on 2017 dynamic monitoring data of the migrant population and matched data from 120 prefecture-level cities,this paper uses the Probit model and Propensity Score Matching(PSM)method to examine the impact of public services on the willingness of rural-urban migrants to settle in cities,from the perspective of the moderating effect of household registration threshold.The results indicate that while public services can effectively enhance the willingness to settle,the household registration system restricts the equitable access of the rural-urban migrants to these services,thereby diminishing their attractiveness.Further research reveals that the household registration threshold has a more significant impact on young and middle-aged individuals,intra-provincial migrants who move alone and the rural-urban migrants in mega and super cities.Based on these findings,the paper suggests continuously optimizing fiscal transfer payments and regional cooperation,enhancing the equalization of public services,deepening the reform of household registration system to clarify household identity identification,and establish a sound public service mechanism based on residence permits as carriers according to individual and regional conditions in order to promote the urbanization of the rural-urban migrants and the high-quality development of new urbanization.

关 键 词：农业转移人口 公共服务 户籍门槛 落户意愿 新型城镇化 

分 类 号：D631.42[政治法律—政治学] F323.6[政治法律—中外政治制度]