人口老龄化、人工智能与产业结构升级  

Population Aging,Artificial Intelligence and Industrial Structure Upgrading

作　　者：袁平红[1] 耿潇雨 YUAN Pinghong;GENG Xiaoyu(School of International Trade and Economics,Anhui University of Finance&Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《沈阳大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第6期31-39,共9页Journal of Shenyang University:Social Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(24BGJ003);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(ACYC2023184)。

摘　　要：基于2007-2021年30个地区的数据,使用固定效应模型对人口老龄化如何影响产业结构升级进行了实证分析。研究了人口老龄化对产业结构升级的非线性影响及人工智能的调节作用。研究发现:随着人口老龄化程度的提高,其对产业结构升级的影响呈“U”型,即先抑制后促进;人工智能削弱了人口老龄化对产业结构升级的负面影响,增强了正向影响,使得“U”型曲线变得平缓,加快了转折点的到来。提出了以下建议:充分发挥人口老龄化的积极影响,推动产业结构升级;加快推进适老化改革;大力发展人工智能,加快产业数字化和数字产业化的发展。Based on the data of 30 regions from 2007 to 2021,a fixed-effect model was used to empirically analyze how population aging affects industrial structure upgrading.The nonlinear impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading and the moderating effect of artificial intelligence were studied.The results show that with the increase of population aging,its impact on the upgrading of industrial structure is"U"shaped,that is,it is first suppressed and then promoted;artificial intelligence has weakened the negative impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure,enhanced the positive impact,flattened the"U"curve,and accelerated the arrival of the turning point.The following suggestions were put forward:give full play to the positive impact of population aging and promote the upgrading of industrial structure;accelerate the reform of adaptation to the elderly;vigorously develop artificial intelligence and accelerate the development of industrial digitization and digital industrialization.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 产业结构升级 人工智能 固定效应 调节作用 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]