赌徒论证、混合型策略及其问题  

The Wager,Mixed Strategies and the Problems

作　　者：汤志恒 Tang Zhiheng

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学哲学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010070

出　　处：《文史哲》2024年第6期146-161,165,共17页Literature,History,and Philosophy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“社会文化视域下的概念与推理研究”(22JJD720021)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：帕斯卡的“赌徒论证”是宗教哲学中与本体论论证并驾齐驱的两大论证之一,但在国内学界却没有引起相应的重视甚至是鲜有提及。依托决策论框架,赌徒论证的旨趣在于论证理性的逐利者“应该选择相信上帝存在”,而不管上帝“事实上”是否存在。赌徒论证所引入的一些前提在细节上有很多可推敲之处,但是直到不久前西方学界一般认为该论证是有效的——如果这个论证的所有前提都是成立的,那么其结论成立。晚近由达夫和亥杰克提出的“混合型策略”改变了这一状况——如果把混合型策略纳入考量的话,可以看出赌徒论证要么是犯了“遗漏可能性”的逻辑错误,要么其所指向的实践价值会被瓦解。围绕混合型策略所进行的一系列饶有趣味的讨论成为晚近西方宗教哲学中的一个小热点。然而本文的分析表明,在该讨论的最近一个回合中,对“不可数无穷多次掷骰子”这个概念的使用是成问题的;贯穿该讨论的一个重要想法,即“根据预见来选择相信上帝存在”,也有进一步推敲的空间。Little in the philosophical circle in China has been written about Pascal's Wager,an argument usually in the West considered as important as the all-famous Ontological Argument.Built on decision theory,the Wager aims to argue that we should opt to believe in God,regardless whether God in fact exists or not.Although there is a plethora of controversies in connection with the details of the Wager,not too long ago the consensus was that the argument is nonetheless valid.The situation has changed,however,after the so-called“mixed strategies”were first introduced by Duff and then refined by Hájek.Their thought is that,by taking into consideration of the mixed strategies,either the Wager can be shown to be guilty of the fallacy of false alternatives,or it can be shown to be deprived of its practical value.A thread of interesting discussion about the mixed strategies has then emerged and gained attention.The present paper tries to move forward the discussion by questioning the notions of“uncountably many die rolls”and“to wager for God based on foreseeing”.

关 键 词：赌徒论证 帕斯卡 混合型策略 因果关系 

分 类 号：B920[哲学宗教—宗教学] B016