环亚太区域中美经济战略竞争的效应研究  

The Effect of Economic Strategic Competition between China and the United States around the Asia Pacific Region

作　　者：邹战勇 姜永宏[2] ZOU Zhanyong;JIANG Yonghong

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学统计与数学学院 [2]暨南大学经济学院

出　　处：《暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第9期106-121,共16页Jinan Journal(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“动态相关视角下国际油价波动对中国股市的系统性风险溢出研究”(71971098);广东省自然科学基金“中国经济周期非对称驱动差异性研究”(2018A030313552)。

摘　　要：随着美国全球竞争战略重心的东移和中国的和平崛起,中美两国都将在环亚太区域以经济利益为中心展开全面竞争。本文选择包括中国、美国、俄罗斯、日本和印度等大国在内的环亚太15个国家作为研究个体,以宏观经济均衡的影响效应为理论模型,运用空间计量模型,对15国在2001到2020年的数据进行了动态面板数据下的空间杜宾(SDM)模型实证估计。结果表明消费、人均净收入、出口和进口是环亚太国家跨国经济波动的重要影响因素。中国对该地区的跨国影响力显著强于美国,主要体现在中国在以上四个宏观经济变量的跨国影响力都大于美国,特别是中国的进出口对该地区具有显著影响效应。进一步的研究发现,对于不同地理位置,在东北亚地区中国的影响力优于美国,而在东南亚地区美国在经济总量影响上更有优势,中国在促进经济增长的途径上更具影响力。对于不同时间段,在全球金融危机爆发前,中美两国在不同方面共同促进着环亚太国家的经济发展,但在危机爆发后,美国会对环亚太国家的经济增长产生抑制作用,但中国对实现区域经济增长起到重要作用。With the shift of US global competition strategic focus to the east and the peaceful rise of China,the economic strategic competition between the two countries in the Asia-Pacific region has increased.This article aims to explore the factors influencing cross-border economic fluctuations among countries in the Asia-Pacific region,focusing particularly on variables such as consumption,per capita net income,exports,and imports.Additionally,the study examines the differential economic influence of the United States and China in the region,as well as their roles in promoting regional economic development.The study employs a spatial econometric empirical model,specifically the Spatial Durbin Model(SDM)under dynamic panel data,to conduct empirical estimation.Data from 15 countries in the Asia-Pacific region,including major powers like the United States,China,Russia,Japan,and India,spanning from 2001 to 2020,are analyzed.Distance-based methods are utilized to define spatial weight matrices using straight-line distances between capitals,thereby controlling for the geographical distance s impact on cross-border economic effects.The research delves into the spatial effects of the economic strategic competition between the United States and China in the Asia-Pacific region.Findings indicate that variables such as consumption,per capita net income,exports,and imports significantly influence cross-border economic fluctuations among Asia-Pacific countries.China s transnational influence in the region is notably stronger than that of the United States,particularly in trade where Chinese imports and exports exert a significant impact on regional economies.Moreover,the study reveals that China holds greater influence than the United States in fostering regional economic growth.These findings are crucial for formulating and adjusting regional economic policies aimed at promoting economic development.The research not only provides valuable data and insights but also contributes to academic progress in related fields,offering valuab

关 键 词：环亚太 地缘经济 空间依赖 空间权重矩阵 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易] F742[经济管理—世界经济]