中国农业减污降碳协同增效的水平测度及其时空收敛性研究——基于“减污、降碳、扩绿、增长”的四维分析  

Environment Pollution and Carbon Emission of Agriculture in China:Based on the Four-Dimensional Analysis of “Pollution Reduction,Carbon Reduction,Green Expansion and Growth”

作　　者：卢泓钢 王益如 吴伟光[1,2] LU Honggang;WANG Yiru;WU Weiguang(Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang Province,Zhejiang Agricultural and Forestry University,Hangzhou Zhejiang 311300,China;School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Agricultural and Forestry University,Hangzhou Zhejiang 311300,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院,浙江杭州311300 [2]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,浙江杭州311300

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第12期186-195,共10页Ecological Economy

基　　金：浙江省哲学社会科学基金项目“‘八八战略’以来浙江省农业减污降碳政策演进及其效果评估”(23LLXC025YB);浙江农林大学科研发展基金人才启动项目“农业减污降碳协同效应的时空特征及其影响机制分析”(2022FR023);浙江省教育厅一般科研项目“‘肥药两制’数字化改革政策对农业绿色发展的影响研究”(Y202353113)。

摘　　要：协同推进农业减污降碳是打好防污攻坚战的关键路径和重要抓手。基于2000—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据,利用熵值法从减污、降碳、扩绿和增长四个维度构建评价指标体系综合评价中国农业减污降碳协同增效水平,并采用耦合模型、核密度估计、空间收敛模型等方法对该指标的耦合协调度、动态演进以及空间收敛趋势进行探讨。结果显示:(1)中国农业减污降碳协同增效水平逐年提升,但减污与降碳两个子系统呈下降趋势。(2)我国及三大区域均处于明显上升的高耦合水平阶段,但整体耦合协调程度还处于中等水平,尚未形成良好的耦合发展态势。(3)中国农业减污降碳协同增效水平整体呈现上升趋势,且分布的多极化趋势在减弱。(4)中国农业减污降碳协同增效水平存在显著的σ收敛、绝对β收敛和条件β收敛。因此,各地区要因地制宜并加强区域合作,推动农业减污降碳高效发展。Synergy to reduce agricultural pollution and carbon emissions is the key to fight against China’s growing air pollution and carbon emissions.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020,the entropy value method is used to construct an evaluation index system to comprehensively evaluate the synergistic level of China’s agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction using the four dimensions of pollution reduction,carbon reduction,greening,and growth,and the coupling model.Kernel density estimation and convergent model are also used to explore the index’s coupling coordination degree,dynamic evolution process,and spatial convergence trend.The results are obtained as follows:(1) The development index of China’s agricultural synergetic control of environment pollution and carbon emission is increasing year by year,but the two subsystems of pollution reduction and carbon reduction showed a downward trend.(2) The whole country and the three regions are in the stage of high coupling level,and there is an obvious rising trend,but the overall coupling coordination degree is still at a medium level and a good coupling development trend has not been formed.(3) China’s agricultural synergetic control of environment pollution and carbon emission is generally on the rise,and the trend of multi-polarization is weakening,regional differences are narrowing.(4) There are significant σ convergence,absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence in China’s agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergies.In conclusion,all regions should adapt to local conditions and strengthen regional cooperation to improve the efficient development of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction.

关 键 词：农业碳排放 农业面源污染 减污降碳协同增效 水平测度 收敛性分析 

分 类 号：X5[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F313[经济管理—产业经济] F062.2