基于时间序列分析与预测的电-气互联综合能源系统运行风险评估  

Operational Risk Assessment of Electricity-Gas Interconnected Integrated Energy System Based on Time Series Analysis and Prediction

作　　者：许桉晨 崔双喜[1] 邓顺黎 XU Anchen;CUI Shuangxi;DENG Shunli(College of Electrical Engineering,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830017,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学电气工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830017

出　　处：《智慧电力》2024年第11期40-47,共8页Smart Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52266018)。

摘　　要：保障电-气互联综合能源系统(EGIES)的运行安全,需要考虑系统的历史运行情况和未来变化趋势。提出一种时间序列预测算法的风险评估方法,以综合考虑EGIES的历史运行数据和未来变化趋势。在EGIES确定性能流计算和基于半不变量法的EGIES概率能流计算基础上,提出融合趋势分析法和时序概率加权法,并基于多属性决策分析中的加权求和法,得到综合风险评估指标,以准确评估系统的运行风险。算例结果表明:提出的风险评估方法能够有效反映系统的运行风险,同时拥有较高的计算效率,为EGIES的风险管理和优化决策提供了可靠的技术支持。To ensure the safe operation of the electricity-gas integrated energy system(EGIES),it is necessary to consider both the historical operational data and future trends of the system.The paper proposes a risk assessment method based on time series prediction algorithm to comprehensively consider the historical operation data and future trends of EGIES.Based on deterministic energy flow computations and probabilistic energy flow calculations using the semi-invariant method,this paper introduces a fused trend analysis method and a time series probability weighting method.Furthermore,a comprehensive risk assessment index is derived using the weighted summation method from multi-attribute decision analysis,to accurately assess the operational risks of the system.The case study results demonstrate that the proposed risk assessment method can effectively reflect the system’s operational risks while maintaining high computational efficiency.This provides reliable technical support for the risk management and optimization decisions of EGIES.

关 键 词：综合能源系统 运行风险评估 时间序列预测 能流计算 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]