2014—2023年河南省焦作市水痘流行特征及发病趋势预测  

The epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend prediction of varicella in Jiaozuo City,Henan Province,from 2014 to 2023

作　　者：田争 原跃礼[1] 王军[1] 冯晖[1] 职瑞娜 徐奕 TIAN Zheng;YUAN Yueli;WANG Jun;FENG Hui;ZHI Ruina;XU Yi(Jiaozuo Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiaozuo,Henan 454003,China)

机构地区：[1]焦作市疾病预防控制中心,河南焦作454003

出　　处：《现代疾病预防控制》2024年第11期853-857,共5页MODERN DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION

摘　　要：目的分析河南省焦作市水痘流行特征,为制定水痘防控策略提供科学依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2014—2023年焦作市水痘疫情资料,采用描述流行病学方法进行分析。结果2014—2023年焦作市累计报告水痘9871例,年均报告发病率27.74/10万,2014—2019年水痘发病逐年上升(χ^(2)_(趋势)=564.86,P<0.001),2020—2022年逐年下降(χ^(2)_(趋势)=160.52,P<0.001),2023年有所上升;各县(市、区)均有病例报告;5—7月和10月至次年1月为流行高峰期;男性年均发病率(30.08/10万)高于女性(26.14/10万),发病年龄主要为15岁以下人群,共报告8388例(84.98%),其中,5~<10岁为高发年龄段(197.33/10万),发病人群以学生、托幼儿童、散居儿童为主(93.63%)。ARIMA模型预测2024年水痘病例较2023年上升,发病时间分布与往年一致。结论应加强水痘疫情防控工作,在高发季节加强中小学校和托幼机构的防控措施,积极引导适龄儿童接种两剂次水痘疫苗。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Jiaozuo,so as to provide scientific evidence for the formulation of varicella prevention and control strategies.Methods Data on the incidence of varicella in Jiaozuo from 2014 to 2023 were collected through the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System,and descriptive epidemiology method was used for the analysis.Results A total of 9871 cases of varicella were reported in Jiaozuo from 2014 to 2023,with an average annual incidence rate of 27.74 per 100000.The incidence of varicella increased year by year from 2014 to 2019(χ^(2)_(trend)=564.86,P<0.001),and decreased year by year from 2020 to 2022(χ^(2)_(trend)=160.52,P<0.001),but increased in 2023.Varicella cases were reported in every county(city,district),and the incidence difference was statistically significant.The epidemic peak periods were from May to July and from October to January of the following year.The average annual incidence rate of varicella in males(30.08/100000)was higher than that in females(26.14/100000).The incidence of varicella was mainly distributed in the groups under 15 years of age,including 8388 cases(84.98%)reported,and the group with 5-<10 years of age had high incidence(197.33/100000).Most of the patients were students,children in nursery care and scattered-lived children(93.63%).The ARIMA model predicted that varicella cases in 2024 would increase compared to 2023,and the distribution of onset time would be consistent with previous years.Conclusions The prevention and control of varicella should be enhanced;the preventive measures in primary and secondary schools as well as kindergartens during the high-incidence season should be reinforced,and eligible children should be actively encouraged to receive two doses of varicella vaccine.

关 键 词：水痘 流行特征 预测 防控策略 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]