一种基于Copula函数的抽水蓄能电站跨年蓄水设计径流计算方法  

A Method for Calculating Cross-year Water Storage Design Runoff of Pumped Storage Power Station Based on Copula Function

作　　者：张瀚文 代斌 徐华亭 ZHANG Hanwen;DAI Bin;XU Huating(Shanghai Investigation,Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200335,China)

机构地区：[1]上海勘测设计研究院有限公司,上海200335

出　　处：《河南水利与南水北调》2024年第10期30-31,34,共3页Henan Water Resources & South-to-North Water Diversion

基　　金：洪水多要素联合分布构建理论及计算方法研究,编号:2022SD(83)-013。

摘　　要：抽水蓄能电站初期蓄水时长通常超过一年,因此工程设计中需要考虑跨年蓄水,一般计算连续两年的设计径流。现行规范使用滑动平均频率分析法,这一方法虽然保证了样本系列长度,但选出的样本之间有较强的自相关性,难以满足样本独立性的假设。论文基于Copula函数理论建立连续两年径流联合分布模型,通过二重数值积分计算法求解模型并推求频率曲线。与规范方法相比,本方法在保证样本长度不变的同时考虑了随机变量间的相关性,在原理上更为合适。实例研究表明,在计算连续两年设计径流时,不同方法得出的设计值在小概率部分差异较大,对于50%、75%等较大概率的设计结果则相差不大,可以用于设计年径流计算。The initial water storage period of a pumped-storage power station usually exceeds one year,hence engineering design should account for storage spanning two years and calculate the design runoff for two consecutive years.In the current standard the moving average frequency analysis method is adopted.Although this method ensures the length of the sample series,yet there is strong autocorrelation between the selected samples,which makes it difficult to meet the assumption of sample independence in frequency analysis calculations.In the paper a joint distribution model for the runoff over two consecutive years is established based on Copula function theory to find the solution of the model using a double numerical integration method to obtain the frequency curve.Compared to the traditional method,this method avoids the aforementioned issues while maintaining the sample length and considering the correlation between data series,which is more theoretically appropriate.The case study indicates that there are differences in the design values obtained by different methods in the low-probability segment when calculating the design runoff for two consecutive years.However,for higher probability design results,such as 50% and 75%,the differences are not significant.

关 键 词：滑动平均频率分析 COPULA函数 抽水蓄能电站 初期蓄水 

分 类 号：TV743[水利工程—水利水电工程]