深圳市2016-2030年55岁及以上中老年人群的疾病负担现况和预测  

Current and predicted disease burden in middle aged and elderly population aged 55 years and above in Shenzhen,2016-2030

作　　者：席俊彦 明睿琦 王奕婧 付英斌[5] 张振[6] 张佳 白建军[7,8,9] 向钇凝 林晓 顾菁[1,2,3] 郝元涛[7,8,9] 刘刚[5] Xi Junyan;Ming Ruiqi;Wang Yijing;Fu Yingbin;Zhang Zhen;Zhang Jia;Bai Jianjun;Xiang Yining;Lin Xiao;Gu Jing;Hao Yuantao;Liu Gang(Department of Medical Statistics,School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510080,China;Global Health Institute,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou510080,China;Center for Health Information Research,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510080,China;School of Public Health,Guangdong Medical University,Dongguan523808,China;Department of Operations Management(Department of Primary Public Health Promotion),Shenzhen Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen518055,China;Institute for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen518055,China;Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness&Response,Beijing100191,China;Department of Epidemiology&Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing100191,China;Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases(Peking University),Ministry of Education,Beijing100191,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学公共卫生学院医学统计学系,广州510080 [2]中山大学全球卫生研究中心,广州510080 [3]中山大学卫生信息研究中心,广州510080 [4]广东医科大学公共卫生学院,东莞523808 [5]深圳市疾病预防控制中心业务管理科(基层公共卫生促进部),深圳518055 [6]深圳市疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,深圳518055 [7]北京大学公众健康与重大疫情防控战略研究中心,北京100191 [8]北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,北京100191 [9]重大疾病流行病学教育部重点实验室(北京大学),北京100191

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2024年第11期1550-1558,共9页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：深圳市“医疗卫生三名工程”(SZSM202311001);国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3600804);国家自然科学基金(82373684,82204154)。

摘　　要：目的分析2016-2030年深圳市≥55岁中老年人群的疾病负担,为制定健康老龄化策略提供循证依据。方法测算2016-2022年早死损失寿命年(YLL)、伤残损失寿命年(YLD)和伤残调整寿命年(DALY),采用Joinpoint对数线性回归模型检验时间趋势。综合使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型和灰色系统模型预测2030年的YLL、YLD和DALY。结果2016-2022年,DALY粗率在55~74岁呈短期波动,在≥85岁显著升高;各年龄段的非传染性疾病YLL和YLD比例远大于传染性疾病/营养疾病以及伤害。2022年,各年龄段的YLL顺位第1位分别为肿瘤(55~74岁)和心血管疾病(≥75岁),YLD顺位第1位均为肌肉骨骼疾病。至2030年,各年龄组的YLL和YLD顺位第1位不变,部分疾病或伤害的负担顺位上升。结论深圳市≥55岁各年龄段的疾病负担现况和预测具有不同的特点,应根据相应的疾病负担模式合理分配社会及医疗资源。Objective To analyze the disease burden in middle-aged and elderly population aged≥55 in Shenzhen from 2016 to 2030 and provide evidence for the development of healthy aging strategies.Methods The years of life lost(YLL),years lost due to disability(YLD),and the disability-adjusted life year(DALY)in this population from 2016 to 2022 were calculated.Joinpoint log-linear regression model was used to analyze the time trend.Bayesian age-period-cohort model and grey system model were used to predict YLL,YLD,and DALY in this population in 2030.Results From 2016 to 2022,the crude DALY rate showed a transient fluctuation in age group 55-74 years,but a pronounced increase in age group≥85 years.The proportions of YLL and YLD due to non-communicable diseases in all age groups was considerably higher than those due to communicable and nutritional diseases and injuries.In 2022,in all age groups,the YLL due to neoplasms(55-74 years old)and cardiovascular disease(≥75 years old)ranked first,and the YLD due to musculoskeletal disorder ranked first.By 2030,the causes of YLL and YLD ranking first in each age group would be remained,while the ranks of some causes would increase.Conclusions The age specific characteristics of current and predicted disease burden differed in individuals aged≥55 years.Therefore,it is necessary to allocate social and medical resources according to the disease burden pattern.

关 键 词：健康老龄化 疾病负担 时间趋势 贝叶斯 灰色系统 预测模型 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]