2024年10月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估  

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China,October 2024

作　　者：刘漫 赵宏婷[4] 秦颖 任瑞琦[2] 白文清 牟笛 刘凤凤[4] 靳淼[5] 孟玲[2] 涂文校[2] 施国庆[2] 向妮娟[2] Liu Man;Zhao Hongting;Qin Ying;Ren Ruiqi;Bai Wenqing;Mu Di;Liu Fengfeng;Jin Miao;Meng Ling;Tu Wenxiao;Shi Guoqing;Xiang Nijuan(China Field Epidemiology Training Program,Beijing 100050,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Public Health Emergency Center,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan 430070,Hubei,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Division of Infectious Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心现场流行病学培训项目,北京100050 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心应急中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [3]湖北省疾病预防控制中心,湖北武汉430070 [4]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病处,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [5]中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206

出　　处：《疾病监测》2024年第10期1247-1250,共4页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的评估2024年10月在我国(不含香港地区、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果2024年10月突发公共卫生事件数可能较9月有所上升,以传染病事件为主。2024年秋冬季和2025年春季我国可能仍将面临多种急性呼吸道传染病共同或交替流行的挑战,我国境内新型冠状病毒感染疫情已降至较低水平,人感染禽流感疫情存在散发以及小规模聚集的可能,猴痘短期内仍将呈低水平传播态势,登革热疫情仍将处于较高水平,手足口病和诺如病毒肠炎引起的学校、托幼机构等重点场所聚集性/暴发疫情将增加。结论对呼吸道传染病多病原感染、新型冠状病毒感染、人感染禽流感、猴痘、登革热、手足口病、诺如病毒肠炎等予以关注。Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China(except Hong Kong region and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region,the same below)in October 2024.Methods Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments,the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial(autonomous region and municipal)centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.Results In the autumn,winter of 2024 and spring of 2025,China may face the challenge of co-epidemic or alternate epidemics of multiple acute respiratory infectious diseases.The epidemic of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in China has dropped to a low level.Sporadic or clustered cases of human infection with avian influenza may occur.The number of reported mpox cases will still at a low level.The epidemic of dengue fever might still be at its peak.Outbreaks caused by hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)and norovirus enteritis in kindergartens,primary and middle schools will increase.Conclusion Attention should be paid to multiple acute respiratory infectious diseases,COVID-19,human infection with avian influenza virus,mpox,dengue fever,HFMD and norovirus enteritis.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R51