豫西南地区土地利用景观生态风险分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction of landscape ecological risk of land use in southwest Henan Province

作　　者：郭兰博 赵冬 杨嗣海 尤清田 田明霜 冯娟 GUO Lan-bo;ZHAO Dong;YANG Si-hai;YOU Qing-tian;TIAN Ming-shuang;FENG Juan(Henan Kebo Information Technology Service Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450052,China;Institute of Geographical Science,Henan Academy of Sciences,Zhengzhou 450052,China;Henan Quntuo Construction Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Luoyang 471500,China;Luanchuan County Culture Radio,Television and Tourism Bureau,Luoyang 471500,China)

机构地区：[1]河南科博信息技术服务有限公司,河南郑州450052 [2]河南省科学院地理研究所,河南郑州450052 [3]河南群拓建筑工程有限公司,河南洛阳471500 [4]栾川县文化广电和旅游局,河南洛阳471500

出　　处：《环境生态学》2024年第11期11-18,共8页Environmental Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41807018);河南省重点研发与推广专项(科技攻关)(232102320269);河南省科学院基本科研费项目(240601087)资助。

摘　　要：以豫西南地区4个地级市为研究区域,基于2000年、2010年、2020年的土地利用数据,结合景观生态学、地统计学方法和斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(PLUS)模型,分析、预测其景观生态风险的时空演变规律。结果表明:1)2000-2020年豫西南地区景观类型主要以耕地、林地为主。景观类型表现为“三增三减”,其中,耕地、建设用地面积变化最为显著;2)2000-2020年豫西南地区景观生态风险指数空间集聚性较为明显,景观生态风险等级呈现逐渐上升趋势;3)豫西南地区景观生态风险指数从空间上由高聚集逐渐向均匀分布的趋势靠拢,景观生态风险值以低-低聚集和高-高聚集为主;4)豫西南地区2030-2050年景观生态风险指数整体上以较低风险区、低风险区和中风险区为主。Based on the land use data of 2000,2010 and 2020,Combined landscape ecology,geostatistical methods and patch generation land use change simulation(PLUS)model,this study analyzes and predicts the spatial distribution and evolution of landscape ecological risk in four cities in southwest Henan Province.The results show that:1)Cultivated land and forest land are the main landscape types in southwest Henan from 2000 to 2020.The landscape conversion shows the trend of“three increases and three decreases”,among which the changes of cultivated land and construction land area are the most significant.2)From 2000 to 2020,the spatial agglomeration of landscape ecological risk index was obvious in southwest Henan,and the overall quality of landscape ecological risk deteriorated.3)The landscape ecological risk index in southwest Henan Province gradually approached the trend of uniform distribution from high aggregation,and the landscape ecological risk values were mainly low aggregation and high aggregation.4)The landscape ecological risk index in southwest Henan from 2030 to 2050 is mainly low risk area,low risk area and medium risk area.

关 键 词：土地利用 景观生态风险 时空演变 PLUS模型 空间自相关 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]