东江下游流域突发性重金属污染风险调控与决策分析  

Risk control and decision analysis for heavy metal pollution accidents at the Dongjiang downstream mainstream watershed

作　　者：张路路 刘静 李洋 张志娇 张启月 ZHANG Lu-lu;LIU Jing;LI Yang;ZHANG Zhi-jiao;ZHANG Qi-yue(Institute of Environmental Risk&Damages Assessment,Guangdong Provincial Academy of Environmental Science,Guangzhou 510045,China;Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Nanjing 210042,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省环境科学研究院环境风险与损害鉴定评估研究所,广东广州510045 [2]生态环境部南京环境科学研究所,江苏南京210042 [3]北京师范大学环境学院环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《环境生态学》2024年第11期113-119,共7页Environmental Ecology

基　　金：广东省环保专项资金项目(粤财预〔2023〕6号)资助。

摘　　要：突发性水污染事件发生不确定性大,难以预测和防控,对流域生态环境、经济社会及人群健康造成严重威胁。为针对东江下游流域环境风险管理提出合理有效的风险决策方案,本研究开展流域突发性重金属污染风险调控与决策分析研究,提出基于贝叶斯决策网络的流域环境风险调控决策模式,分设多种决策节点及效用节点,优化概率推理过程,实现不同环境风险调控与决策方案的比选。结果表明:1)东江下游流域突发性重金属污染事件一旦发生,最优决策方案为风险综合调控策略(M5);2)单一风险减缓措施的调控效果优劣排序为防控风险源(M1)>切断暴露途径(M2)>保护敏感风险受体(M3~M4)。研究结果可为东江下游流域典型风险源差异化风险防控提供科学依据,为流域风险管控提供定量化、科学化的决策支持。Water pollution accidents have the characteristics of high uncertainty,rapid evolution and are difficult to control,thus posing great threats to human health,ecological security,and social stability.The key to watershed environmental risk management is to make reasonable and effective risk decision-making plans.This study proposes a decision-making model for environmental risk control in the watershed based on Bayesian Decision Network,which is divided into multiple decision-making nodes and utility nodes to optimize the probability.Taking Dongjiang downstream mainstream watershed as an example,we carried out research on risk control and decision-making analysis of water pollution accidents in the watershed,and the reasoning process enabled the comparison and selection of decision-making options for different environmental risk control.The results show that:1)Once water pollution accidents occurred,the optimal decision-making plan is the comprehensive measure(M5)in the Dongjiang downstream watershed;2)The ranking of the control effects of single risk mitigation measures is:Risk source prevention(M1)>exposure pathway interruption(M2)>human/ecological receptor protection(M3~M4).The research results can provide scientific basis for the formulation of differentiated risk control and management strategies for typical risk sources in the lower reaches of the Dongjiang River Basin,and provide quantitative and scientific decision-making support for risk management and control in the basin.

关 键 词：东江下游 突发性重金属污染 贝叶斯决策网络 风险调控 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程]