基于贝叶斯网络的公路隧道围岩失稳风险评估及系统开发  

Risk assessment and system development of surrounding rock instability in highway tunnel based on Bayesian network

作　　者：邹鹤民 ZOU Hemin(China Railway 16th Bureau Group Third Engineering Co.Ltd.,Huzhou Zhejiang 313000,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁十六局集团第三工程有限公司,浙江湖州313000

出　　处：《地质科技通报》2024年第6期89-101,共13页Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology

基　　金：中铁十六局集团有限公司科技计划项目(K2023-6B);中国铁路上海局集团有限公司科研项目(2024141;2022178)。

摘　　要：随着我国交通运输行业的快速发展,公路建设所面临的地质条件越来越复杂,隧道凭借其优越的越岭能力在地质条件复杂的山岭公路建设中得到了广泛的应用。然而随着隧道工程数量的增加,公路隧道建设过程中,围岩掉块、塌方等频繁发生,造成严重的经济损伤和人员伤亡,因此进行准确的风险评估具有重要工程意义。首先,针对公路隧道失稳风险评估因素的复杂性和多样性,归纳统计了40例失稳工程案例,细化出14个二级指标并构建了风险评估指标体系。然后,从灾害发生的概率和后果2个方面对风险进行了评估,采用解释结构模型(interpretative structural modeling,简称ISM)法构建了层次拓扑图,并通过因果图法修正建立贝叶斯网络模型,分别使用统计结果中80%和20%的案例对模型进行了训练和验证。最后,自主开发了公路隧道失稳风险贝叶斯网络评估系统(risk assessment Bayesian network evaluation system,简称RIAS),该系统兼具工程适用性和使用友好性特征,实现了公路隧道建设过程中的准确、快速围岩失稳风险评估。将构建的公路隧道失稳风险评估系统应用在北固山隧道ZK5+937~ZK5+917等标段的风险评估工作,预测结果显示隧道的失稳概率为18.2%,失稳规模为“None(无)”,失稳风险评估等级计算为“低度I”,与实际开挖情况相符。本研究创新性地改进了单一风险等级评估的缺陷,构建了适用于公路隧道失稳风险评估的贝叶斯网络模型,解决了因工程数据组数不足致使无法借助评估模型实现精准、快速评估的难题。所搭建的贝叶斯网络模型成功通过了北固山隧道的检验,证明该模型可应用于其他公路隧道工程建设中,对提高公路隧道建设的安全性和风险预测具有较好工程应用价值。[Objective]With the rapid development of China′s transportation industry,the geological conditions encountered in highway construction are becoming increasingly complex.Tunnels,owing to their ability to traverse mountainous terrain,are widely used in highway projects through challenging geological environments.However,as the number of tunnel projects has increased,the frequency of rock collapses and landslides during highway tunnel construction has also risen,resulting in significant economic losses and casualties.Therefore,accurate risk assess-ments have become crucial in tunnel engineering.[Methods]To address this,40 cases of instability engineering were summarized and analyzed,refining 14 secondary indicators and establishing a comprehensive risk assessment index system.Risk was then assessed in terms of disaster probability and its consequences.The interpretive struc-tural modeling(ISM)method was employed to construct a hierarchical topology diagram,and a Bayesian network model was established and refined using a causality graph method.The model was trained on 80%of the case data and validated with the remaining 20%.Based on this,the highway tunnel instability risk assessment Bayesian net-work evaluation system(RIAS)was independently developed,offering both engineering applicability and user-friendly functionality,and enabling accurate and rapid assessments of surrounding rock instability during highway tunnel construction.[Results]The system was applied to sections such as ZK5+937~ZK5+917 of the Beigushan Tunnel,predicting an 18.2%probability of tunnel instability with a"None(no risk)"magnitude of instability and a risk level of"Low I"-consistent with the actual excavation results.[Conclusion]This study introduces and in-novative approach by constructing a Bayesian network model tailored for highway tunnel risk assessments,overco-ming the limitations of single-risk-level models and the challenge of insufficient engineering datasets.The model is successfully tested in the Beigushan Tunnel and holds signific

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络模型 风险评估 ISM法 快速评估 系统开发 公路隧道 围岩失稳 

分 类 号：U458.3[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程] TU457[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]