耦合协调度模型的修正与改进  

Modification and Improvement of Coupling Coordination Degree Model

作　　者：范东军 克甝[1,2] 曹润民 Fan Dongjun;Ke Han;Cao Runmin(School of Statistics and Data Science,Xinjiang University of Finance&Economics,Urumqi 830012,China;Xinjiang Socioeconomic Statistics&Big Data Application Research Center,Xinjiang University of Finance&Economics,Urumqi 830012,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学统计与数据科学学院,乌鲁木齐830012 [2]新疆财经大学新疆社会经济统计与大数据应用研究中心,乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《统计与决策》2024年第22期41-46,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：新疆社会经济统计与大数据应用研究中心项目(XJEDU2024J101);新疆维吾尔自治区高校项目(XJEDU2023P010)。

摘　　要：随着社会科学研究的不断深入,耦合协调度模型成为研究区域协调发展程度的重要评价工具,但伴随着模型的广泛应用,耦合协调度模型的问题也逐渐显露。为了提高耦合协调度模型的区分度,解决传统模型中的计算边界问题,正确反映耦合协调的本质含义,文章基于耦合协调度的内涵,构建了改进的耦合协调度模型;并提出应以等概率进行耦合协调度分级,通过核密度估计及蒙特卡洛方法进行了分级表的改进。新的分级表纠正了传统分级表中存在的耦合协调等级变化更稳定的判断偏误,考虑了不同系统个数下的耦合协调度的概率分布。通过实证对比发现,改进的耦合协调度模型及分级表较传统模型及分级表更适合于社会科学领域的耦合协调评价。With the deepening of social science research,coupling coordination degree model has become an important eval-uation tool for regional coordination development research.But with the widespread application of the model,problems are gradu-ally revealed.In order to increase the discrimination of the coupling coordination degree model,solve the calculation boundary problem in traditional models,and correctly reflect the essential meaning of coupling coordination,this paper constructs an im-proved coupling coordination degree model based on the connotation of coupling coordination degree,proposes that coupling coor-dination degree should be graded with equal probability,and improves the classification table by kernel density estimation and Monte Carlo method.The new grading table corrects the judgment bias of the traditional grading table that the change of coupling coordination level is more stable,and considers the probability distribution of coupling coordination degree under different system numbers.Through empirical comparison,it is found that the improved coupling coordination degree model and grading table are more suitable for coupling coordination evaluation in the field of social science than the traditional model and grading table.

关 键 词：耦合协调度 核密度估计 蒙特卡洛方法 模型改进 

分 类 号：O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计]