复种指数视角下湖南省域及典型县域粮食增产潜力时序特征分析  

Temporal Characteristics Analysis of the Grain Yield Increase Potential in Hunan Province and Its Typical County-Level Areas from the Perspective of the Multiple Cropping Index

作　　者：谭杰扬[1] 陈丽桦 张晓杰 詹祎蕊 黄振国[1] 邓文[1] TAN Jie-yang;CHEN Li-hua;ZHANG Xiao-jie;ZHAN Yi-rui;HUANG Zhen-guo;DENG Wen(Institute of Agricultural Economy and Agricultural Regionalization,Hunan Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Changsha 410125,PRC)

机构地区：[1]湖南省农业科学院农业经济和农业区划研究所,湖南长沙410125

出　　处：《湖南农业科学》2024年第11期87-95,共9页Hunan Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金项目(2021JJ40286);湖南省财政重大专项(湘财农指[2023]51号)。

摘　　要：分析1972—2021年湖南省域及4个典型县域的耕地和农作物种植时序特征,探讨复种指数时序特征及粮食增产潜力。结果表明,复种指数提升潜力的时序特征具有明显区域差异性,位于山区与毗邻城市群的县域(芷江侗族自治县、浏阳市)耕地复种指数提升潜力未随粮食作物播种面积占农作物总播种面积的比例减少而大幅增加,其平均值范围为0.12~0.50,复种指数提升潜力有限;粮食主产县域(湘阴县、祁阳市)耕地与粮食作物复种指数提升潜力变化趋势基本一致,其平均值范围为0.23~0.79,复种指数提升潜力较大。全省基于耕地与粮食作物复种指数的粮食年均最大增产潜力分别为454.50万、208.70万t,对应时期分别为1984—1988年、2002—2003年;典型县域的粮食增产潜力时空差异明显,基于耕地与粮食作物复种指数的粮食增产潜力平均值范围分别为0.69万~10.32万t、1.33万~12.56万t,在基于粮食作物复种指数的粮食增产潜力方面,湘阴县的粮食增产潜力最大,其次是祁阳市与浏阳市,粮食增产潜力最小的为芷江侗族自治县。Temporal characteristics of cultivated land and crop planting in Hunan Province and its four typical county-level areas from 1972 to 2021 were analyzed,and temporal characteristics of the multiple cropping index and the grain yield increase potential were discussed.The results showed that temporal characteristics of the improvement potential of the multiple cropping index had obvious regional differences.The improvement potential of the cultivated land multiple cropping index in county-level areas located in mountainous areas and adjacent to urban agglomerations(Zhijiang Dong Autonomous County and Liuyang City)did not increase significantly with the decrease of the proportion of the grain crop sown area to the total crop sown area,with the average value ranging from 0.12 to 0.50.The improvement potential of the multiple cropping index was limited.In the main grain-producing county-level areas(Xiangyin County and Qiyang City),the change trends of the improvement potential of the cultivated land multiple cropping index and the improvement potential of the grain crop multiple cropping index were basically the same,with the average value ranging from 0.23 to 0.79.The improvement potential of the multiple cropping index was greater.In Hunan Province,the maximum annual grain yield increase potential based on the cutivated land multiple cropping index and that based on the grain crop multiple cropping index was 4.545 million and 2.087 million tons,respectively,and the corresponding period was 1984-1988 and 2002-2003,respectively.The spatial and temporal differences of the grain yield increase potential in typical county-level areas were obvious.The average value range of the grain yield increase potential based on the cultivated land multiple cropping index and that of the grain yield increase potential based on the grain crop mulitple cropping index was from 6.9 thousand to 103.2 thousand tons and from 13.3 thousand to 125.6 thousand tons,respectively.In terms of the grain yield increase potential based on the grain cr

关 键 词：复种指数 粮食产量 典型县域 时序特征 湖南 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]