基于综合效用的节段梁生产关键链项目缓冲确定  

Buffer determination of critical chain project in segmental girders production based on comprehensive utility

作　　者：袁剑波[1] 孟玉芬 曾佳丽 朱修执 YUAN Jianbo;MENG Yufen;ZENG Jiali;ZHU Xiuzhi(School of Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410114,China;Huangmao Sea Crossing Management Center,Zhuhai 519055,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410114 [2]黄茅海跨海通道管理中心,广东珠海519055

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2024年第11期4779-4788,共10页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：湖南省交通运输厅科技进步与创新项目(202039)。

摘　　要：为解决预制节段梁生产过程的不确定性,提出一种基于工期-成本-质量综合效用最大的缓冲确定方法,以实现确保进度、控制成本和保证质量的项目管理目标。以黄茅海跨海大桥为例,将预制节段梁生产问题描述为基于工期-成本-质量综合效用最大的多目标优化问题,并利用多属性效用函数将三者归一化处理,确定最佳效用时间。采用根方差法将分散在各个工序中的安全时间汇总到项目尾部,形成缓冲。经蒙特卡洛模拟实验,将缓冲结果与传统方法进行比较。研究结果表明:1)在保证项目成本最低和质量最优的前提下,充分考虑各工序实际情况,确定的缓冲介于对比方法之间,相较于仅考虑工期-成本确定的缓冲更加合理;2)模型能实现项目工期、成本和质量的三重优化,并使工期波动性较小,实际成本最低,工序质量最优,同时进一步说明工期越长,波动性越小,不确定性也在下降;3)该方法缓冲消耗相对较低,这是由于该方法以工期-成本-质量综合效用最大为目标,将安全时间抽取出来作为缓冲,减少各工序安全时间的浪费,降低项目缓冲的平均消耗。本研究可增强预制节段梁生产过程中应对不确定性的能力,缩短工期,保证工程整体按期完工,提高生产效率和生产质量,为预制节段梁生产提供更为高效的保障。To absorb the uncertainty of the prefabricated segmental girder production process,a buffer determination method based on the integrated utility maximization of duration-cost-quality was proposed to achieve the project management objectives of ensuring schedule,controlling cost and guaranteeing quality.Taking the Huangmaohai Cross-sea Bridge as an example,the production issue of prefabricated segmental girders was described as a multi-objective optimization problem based on the maximization of integrated utility across duration,cost,and quality.Utilizing a multi-attribute utility function,these factors were normalized to determine the optimal utility time.Finally,the root-variance method was utilized to consolidate dispersed safety time from various processes to the end of the project,forming a buffer.Through Monte Carlo simulation experiments,the buffer outcomes were compared with traditional methods.The research findings are draw as follows.(1)Under the premise of ensuring the lowest project cost and optimal quality,the buffer determined by taking into full account the actual conditions of each process falls between the comparison methods.It is deemed more reasonable compared to a buffer determined solely based on duration-cost considerations.(2)The model achieves a triple optimization of project duration,cost,and quality.It results in minimized duration volatility,lowest actual costs,and optimal process quality.Furthermore,this also further illustrates that longer durations correlate with reduced volatility and decreasing uncertainty.(3)The method exhibits relatively low buffer consumption.This is attributed to its goal of maximizing the integrated utility of duration,cost,and quality,extracting safety time as a buffer,reducing wasteful safety time across processes,and lowering the average consumption of project buffer.This study can enhance the ability to cope with uncertainty in the production process of prefabricated segmental girders,shorten the construction period,ensure that the project as a whole is com

关 键 词：项目管理 预制节段梁 关键链 项目缓冲 综合效用 

分 类 号：U445.1[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]