2015—2022年新疆喀什地区肺结核报告发病流行特征分析及季节性自回归移动平均模型建立  

Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of reported pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar Prefecture,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2022 and establishment of SARIMA prediction

作　　者：滕冲 地尔木拉提·吐孙[3] 谢芳 赵冰 张丽杰[2] 李慧[1] 宋媛媛 郑扬[4] 周杨[4] 汪静[1] 黄飞[4] 陈明亭[4] 欧喜超[4] Teng Chong;Diermulati·Tusun;Xie Fang;Zhao Bing;Zhang Lijie;Li Hui;Song Yuanyuan;Zheng Yang;Zhou Yang;Wang Jing;Huang Fei;Chen Mingting;Ou Xichao(Department of Tuberculosis,Beijing Dongcheng District Center for Disease Control,Beijing100050,China;Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program,Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing100050,China;Department of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention,Kashgar District Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Kashgar 844000,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,National Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention/Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市东城区疾病预防控制中心结核病防治科,北京100050 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心中国现场流行病学培训项目,北京100050 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区喀什地区疾病预防控制中心结核病/麻风防治科,喀什844000 [4]传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室中国疾病预防控制中心结核病预防控制中心,北京102206

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2024年第11期1665-1672,共8页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC2305204,2023YFC2307301)。

摘　　要：目的分析2015—2022年新疆喀什地区肺结核报告发病流行特征,使用季节性自回归移动平均模型(SARIMA)预测发病情况,为当地肺结核疫情控制提供参考。方法通过"中国疾病预防控制信息系统"子系统"传染病监测系统"收集新疆喀什地区2015年1月至2023年8月肺结核报告发病数据,分析2015—2022年该地区报告发病流行特征,建立月报告发病数和月报告发病率的2种SARIMA模型,采用2023年1—8月的肺结核报告发病数据评价2种模型预测效果。分别采用χ2检验分析人群特征和Cochran-Armitage趋势检验进行年度发病情况分析。结果2015—2022年喀什地区累计报告肺结核患者133972例,年均报告发病率383.64/10万,呈先上升(T_(CA)=77.03,P<0.001)后下降(T_(CA)=176.16,P<0.001)的趋势。病原学阳性肺结核的构成比呈逐年上升趋势(T_(CA)=132.66,P<0.001)。报告发病时间集中在每年的1—6月,4月达高峰。英吉沙县、泽普县和岳普湖县的报告发病率位居喀什地区前列。男女性别比1.03∶1,男性报告发病率高于女性(χ2=27.04,P<0.001)。≥60岁组的报告发病率最高。患者职业以农民为主(84.99%)。SARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)12模型和SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12)模型预测报告月发病数和月发病率的平均相对误差分别是11.67%和-9.81%,2种模型预测精确度均较好(MAPE=33.55%,MAPE=38.22%)。结论喀什地区肺结核平均报告发病率呈先上升后下降趋势,以男性、农民为主,需注重冬春季节、老年人群的结核病防控工作。SARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)_(12)模型和SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12)模型能较好拟合喀什地区肺结核报告发病变化趋势且预测效果良好。ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022,and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model to predict the incidence,providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.MethodsThe reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System",a subsystem of the"Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System".The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed.Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established.The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023.Theχ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics,and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence.ResultsFrom 2015 to 2022,133972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar,with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100000,showing a rising trend(T_(CA)=77.03,P<0.001)and then a declining trend(T_(CA)=176.16,P<0.001).The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly(T_(CA)=132.66,P<0.001).The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year,with a peak in April.Yengisar County,Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar.The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1,and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women(χ2=27.04,P<0.001).The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest.The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers(84.99%).The average relative errors of the SARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)_(12)model and SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12)model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67%and-9.81%,respectively.Both models had good prediction accuracy(MAPE=33.55%,MAPE=38

关 键 词：结核 肺 监测 流行特征 季节性自回归移动平均模型 

分 类 号：R521[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]