长三角典型城市颗粒物分布特征及健康风险评估研究  

Research on the Distribution Characteristics of Particulate Matter and Health Risk Assessment in Typical City of the Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：李昌平 秦玮 李月娥 周民锋 缪青 魏恒 张晓华 丁黄达 汪俊峰 LI Changping;QIN Wei;LI Yue e;ZHOU Minfeng;MIAO Qing;WEI Heng;ZHANG Xiaohua;DING Huangda;WANG Junfeng(Jiangsu Suzhou Environmental Monitoring Center,Suzhou,Jiangsu 215011,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省苏州环境监测中心,江苏苏州215011 [2]南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《环境监控与预警》2024年第6期36-41,共6页Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning

基　　金：江苏省环境监测科研基金项目(2211)。

摘　　要：于2021年1—12月,利用自动在线监测系统分析长三角典型城市苏州市城区细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))及其主要组分的变化特征。结果表明,观测期间苏州市ρ(PM_(2.5))年均值为28μg/m^(3);ρ(PM_(2.5))明显呈现冬季>春季>秋季>夏季的分布特征。总体上,有机物(OM)在PM_(2.5)中占比最高(28.3%),其次是硝酸盐(NO^(-)_(3),23.0%)、硫酸盐(SO_(4)^(2-),19.4%)、铵离子(NH^(+)_(4),15.6%)、元素碳(EC,4.1%)、钙离子(Ca^(2+),3.4%)、氯离子(Cl^(-),3.2%)、钠离子(Na+,1.3%)、钾离子(K^(+),0.9%)和镁离子(Mg^(2+),0.7%);ρ(NO^(-)_(3))的年均值在PM_(2.5)无机组分中占比最大,包括NH^(+)_(4)、NO^(-)_(3)和SO_(4)^(2-)在内的二次无机水溶性离子占比>50%。基于上述研究结果,分别采用综合暴露反应模型(IER)和全球暴露死亡率模型(GEMM)进行疾病负担评估,主要评估PM_(2.5)长期暴露浓度下阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)、肺癌(LC)、脑卒中(Stroke)、缺血性心脏病(IHD)和下呼吸道感染(LRI)5种疾病的相对风险(RR)以及归因分数(AF)。研究发现,IER模型下5种疾病的相对风险分别是1.14,1.18,1.39,1.26及1.21,归因分数分别是12.3%,15.3%,28.1%,20.6%及17.1%;GEMM模型下5种疾病的相对风险分别是1.31,1.36,1.30,1.59及1.93,归因分数分别是23.7%,26.5%,23.1%,37.1%及48.2%。GEMM模型评估结果要高于IER模型评估结果(Stroke除外)。The component characteristics of PM_(2.5)were analysed by online monitoring systems in the urban area of Suzhou-the typical city of the Yangtze River Delta from January to December in 2021.The results showed that the annual average of PM_(2.5)was 28μg·m^(-3),showing obvious order of winter>spring>autumn>summer during the observation period.Overall,the most abundant component was organicmatter(OM,28.3%),followed by NO^(-)_(3)(23.0%),SO^(2-)_(4)(19.4%),NH^(+)_(4)(15.6%),EC(4.1%),Ca^(2+)(3.4%),Cl^(-)(3.2%),Na+(1.3%),K^(+)(0.9%)and Mg^(2+)(0.7%).On year-average,NO^(-)_(3)was the highest inorganic component in major PM_(2.5)species,and the secondary inorganic ions including NH^(+)_(4),NO^(-)_(3)and SO^(2-)_(4),accounted for more than 50%.Based on the research results above,an disease burden assessment was conducted with the Integrated Exposure-Respone model(IER)and Global Exposure Mortality Model(GEMM),mainly for the relative risk(RR)and the attributable fraction(AF)of the five diseases,such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD),lung cancer(LC),Stroke,ischemic heart disease(IHD)and lower respiratory infection(LRI)attributed to long-term exposure to PM_(2.5).Results showed the relative risks of the five diseases for the IER model were 1.14,1.18,1.39,1.26 and 1.21,with the attributable fractions of 12.3%,15.3%,28.1%,20.6%and 17.1%,respectively.The relative risks of the five diseases for the GEMM model were 1.31,1.36,1.30,1.59 and 1.93,with the attributable fractions of 23.7%,26.5%,23.1%,37.1%and 48.2%,respectively.The evaluation results of the GEMM model were higher than that of the IER model(except for Stroke).

关 键 词：长江三角洲 大气细颗粒物 疾病负担 综合暴露反应模型 全球暴露死亡率模型 

分 类 号：X831[环境科学与工程—环境工程]