基于贝叶斯统计的烤烟叶片临界氮稀释曲线构建  

Construction of critical nitrogen dilution curve of tobacco leaves based on Bayesian Statistics

作　　者：刘力玮 刘洋[2] 张杨[3] 聂威[2] 吴强文 曲远凯 闫慧峰[1] LIU Li-wei;LIU Yang;ZHANG Yang;NIE Wei;WU Qiang-wen;QU Yuan-kai;YAN Hui-feng(Key Laboratory of Tobacco Biology and Processing,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Tobacco Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Qingdao,Shandong 266101,China;Weifang Tobacco Co.,Ltd.,Weifang,Shandong 261205,China;China Tobacco Shandong Industrial Co.,Ltd.,Jinan,Shandong 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院烟草研究所/农业农村部烟草生物学与加工重点实验室,山东青岛266101 [2]山东潍坊烟草有限公司,山东潍坊261205 [3]山东中烟工业有限责任公司,山东济南250014

出　　处：《植物营养与肥料学报》2024年第11期2197-2206,共10页Journal of Plant Nutrition and Fertilizers

基　　金：中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-TRIC03);山东中烟工业有限责任公司科技项目(202201018,202101001);中国烟草总公司山东省公司科技项目(202309)。

摘　　要：【目的】比较基于贝叶斯统计构建的烤烟叶片临界氮稀释曲线与传统方法的区别,以确定其是否可用于氮营养诊断,旨在简化和准确进行烤烟氮营养诊断。【方法】基于两年、3个氮肥用量田间试验,分析了不同氮肥施用量下移栽烤烟不同生长天数的叶片干物质积累量、氮含量。利用各取样时期最大叶片干物质重,将所有处理样本分为生长受氮限制组和不受氮限制组。然后,分别应用贝叶斯统计和传统两步法建立叶片临界氮稀释曲线,使用R语言中rjags软件包实现马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)算法,分析临界氮稀释曲线模型参数A1和A2的后验分布特征,分析曲线对受氮限制和不受氮限制的区分度,拟合计算叶片临界氮浓度和氮营养指数,并比较其相对于实际观测值的差异。【结果】施用氮肥显著增加了烤烟叶片干物质积累量,不同氮肥处理间差异显著,烤烟叶片氮浓度随烤烟生长进程而降低。参数A1和A2的95%后验分布分别为2.58~2.94和0.13~0.33;拟合的烤烟叶片临界氮稀释曲线不确定性水平(95%可信区间的宽度)随着叶片干物重的增加先减少后增加,曲线的不确定性水平为0.16%~0.70%。基于贝叶斯统计的烤烟叶片临界氮稀释曲线对氮限制组和非氮限制组的区分度为71%,优于传统两步法构建曲线的区分度;两种方法拟合的叶片临界氮浓度与实际临界氮浓度相关度基本一致;基于贝叶斯统计构建的曲线拟合计算的氮营养指数略大于两步法,通过两种方法拟合计算的氮营养指数呈高度线性相关,决定系数R^(2)=0.96,标准化均方根误差n-RMSE为6%,稳定度较高。【结论】基于贝叶斯统计构建的烤烟叶片临界氮稀释曲线为N_(c)=2.74×LDM^(−0.22)。贝叶斯曲线在拟合临界氮浓度的效果上,与两步法曲线差异不大,但较两步法曲线可以更好的区分生长受氮限制组与不受氮限制组,且计算的氮营养指数与两【Objectives】We compared accuracy of the critical nitrogen dilution curve of flue-cured tobacco leaves constructed with the traditional method and by Bayesian statistics method,aiming for a simple and accurate nitrogen nutrition diagnosis method for flue-cured tobacco.【Methods】A two-year field experiment,and three nitrogen application rates respectively were conducted.The dry matter accumulation and nitrogen content of fluecured tobacco leaves at different growth days after transplanting were analyzed.According to the maximum dry matter weight of the leaves at each sampling period,all treatment samples were divided into nitrogen-limited growth groups and non-nitrogen-limited growth groups.The leaf critical nitrogen dilution curves were then established using Bayesian statistics and the traditional two-step method, respectively. The R language package rjags was used to implement the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to analyze the posterior distribution characteristics of the critical nitrogen dilution curve model parameters. The discriminability of the curves for nitrogen-limited and non-nitrogen-limited groups was analyzed, and the leaf critical nitrogen concentration and nitrogen nutrition index were calculated and compared with the actual observed values. 【Results】The application of nitrogen fertilizer significantly increased the dry matter accumulation of flue-cured tobacco leaves, with significant differences between different nitrogen treatments. The nitrogen concentration of flue-cured tobacco leaves decreased as the growth process progressed. The 95% posterior distributions of parameters A1 and A2 were 2.58−2.94 and 0.13−0.33, respectively;the uncertainty level (width of the 95% credible interval) of the fitted flue-cured tobacco leaf critical nitrogen dilution curve decreased and then increased with the increase of leaf dry matter weight, with an uncertainty level of 0.16%−0.70%. The discriminability of the flue-cured tobacco leaf critical nitrogen dilution curve constructed base

关 键 词：烤烟 临界氮稀释曲线 贝叶斯统计 不确定性 临界氮浓度 氮营养指数 

分 类 号：S572[农业科学—烟草工业] O212.8[农业科学—作物学]