中国燃煤机组绿氨共燃改造减排潜力评估  

Assessing the emission reduction potential of green ammonia co-firing retrofit for China′s coal-fired power plants

作　　者：任晋辉 张乾志 陈文颖[1] 王利宁 张成龙 陈劲宇 项康利 REN Jinhui;ZHANG Qianzhi;CHEN Wenying;WANG Lining;ZHANG Chenglong;CHEN Jinyu;XIANG Kangli(Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Economics&Technology Research Institute,China National Petroleum Corporation,Beijing 100724,China;State Grid Energy Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China;State Grid Fujian Economic Research Institute,Fuzhou 350012,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [2]中国石油集团经济技术研究院,北京100724 [3]国网能源研究院有限公司,北京102209 [4]国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,福建福州350012

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2024年第9期62-69,共8页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(1400-202357320A-1-1-ZN)。

摘　　要：煤电转型是中国电力部门实现碳中和目标的关键,转型过程中应并重电源的基础保障性和系统调节性,燃煤机组掺混绿氨共燃改造可以在不损失灵活性的前提下兼顾脱碳,但现有研究尚未系统评估燃煤机组掺氨改造的减排潜力。因此,研究基于机组级数据对燃煤机组掺氨改造减排潜力进行评估,并考虑掺氨比和绿氨供应成本的不确定性设计多种改造情景,比较其对减排潜力的影响。结果表明:绿氨供应成本在2040年相比当前可降低六成左右;不同情景、不同地区煤电掺氨改造的碳减排成本差异显著,范围在516~1838元/tCO_(2)内;其中华东地区的燃煤机组减排成本相对更低,不同情景下年减排量可达1.5亿~5.3亿tCO_(2),部分机组可与掺混生物质碳捕集利用与封存(CCUS)改造进行成本竞争。考虑到华东地区的尖峰负荷问题和技术示范效应,应优先考虑在该地区试点燃煤机组掺氨改造项目。The transition of coal power generation is a primary focus for the China’s power sector to achieve carbon neutrality goals.During the transition,equal emphasis should be placed on the reliability and flexibility of power sources.Co-firing retrofitting coal-fired power plants(CFPPs)with green ammonia can effectively balance decarbonization objectives without compromising operational flexibility.However,existing studies have yet to comprehensively assess the emission reduction potential of CFPPs with ammonia co-firing.Hence,this study evaluates the carbon emission reduction potential of retrofitting at the unit level,considering uncertainties in ammonia co-firing ratios and green ammonia supply cost.Various retrofit scenarios are designed and compared to assess the impact on emission reduction potential.The results indicate the supply cost of green ammonia is expected to decrease by around 60%in 2040 compared to the current situation.The carbon abatement costs of ammonia co-firing retrofitting for coal power vary significantly across different scenarios and regions,ranging from 516 to 1838 yuan/tCO_(2).Specifically,the carbon abatement costs of CFPPs in East China are relatively lower,with annual carbon emission reductions ranging from 150 to 530 MtCO_(2)under different scenarios.Some plants can compete with co-firing biomass carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)retrofits.Considering the peak load issues and the technology demonstration effects in East China,pilot projects for coal-fired power plants with ammonia co-firing should be prioritized.

关 键 词：燃煤机组 减排潜力 绿氨供应 碳中和 掺氨改造 经济成本 

分 类 号：TM621[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F416.21[经济管理—产业经济]