进口供应链不确定性对污染物排放的影响及作用机制研究  

The research of impact and mechanism of import supply chain uncertainty on pollutant emissions

作　　者：彭冬冬[1] PENG Dongdong(Department of Ecology Civilization,Fujian Provincial Party School of CPC,Fuzhou 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]中共福建省委党校,福建福州350108

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2024年第9期78-87,共10页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(18CJY045);福建省社会科学基金年度资助项目(FJ2024BF014)。

摘　　要：进口供应链不确定性会对企业生产决策产生重要影响,进而作用于污染物的排放。基于2000—2012年中国工业企业污染数据库、中国工业企业数据库、中国海关贸易数据库以及世界不确定性指数数据库的匹配数据,考察了进口供应链不确定性对企业污染排放的影响。研究结果显示,进口供应链不确定性显著提高了企业的污染物排放强度,在经一系列稳健性检验后该结论依然成立。机制检验表明,进口供应链不确定性通过促使企业选择使用非清洁能源提高了企业的污染物排放强度,即进口供应链不确定性的上升会通过提高企业使用中间品的成本,促使企业选择使用更加廉价但是污染排放密度更高的非清洁能源,进而提高企业的污染物排放强度。异质性分析发现,进口供应链不确定性更加明显地提高了私营企业、高能源依赖度行业企业以及弱环境规制地区企业的污染物排放强度;同时随着进口来源国收入水平的提高,进口供应链不确定性对企业污染物排放强度的加剧作用增强。The uncertainty of import supply chain have a significant impact on enterprise production decisions and further affect the emission of air pollutants.This article examines the impact of import supply chain uncertainty on corporate pollution emissions based on matching data from the China Industrial Enterprise Pollution Database,China Industrial Enterprise Database,China Customs Trade Database,and the WUI Database from 2000 to 2012.The research results show that the uncertainty of the import supply chain significantly increases the intensity of pollutant emissions by enterprises,and this conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests.Mechanism testing shows that the uncertainty of import supply chain increases the intensity of pollutant emissions by encouraging enterprises to use dirty energy.That is to say,the increase in uncertainty of import supply chain will increase the cost of using intermediate goods and encourage enterprises to use cheaper but more polluting dirty energy,thereby increasing the intensity of pollutant emissions for enterprises.Heterogeneity analysis found that the uncertainty of import supply chain significantly increases the intensity of pollutant emissions by private enterprises,enterprises in high energy dependent industries,and enterprises in weak environmental regulation areas.At the same time,as the income level of import source countries increases,the exacerbation effect of import supply chain uncertainty on the intensity of pollutant emissions by enterprises increases.

关 键 词：进口供应链 作用机制 不确定性 污染物排放 能源选择 稳健性检验 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F416.21[经济管理—产业经济]