考虑煤炭期货的调峰机组库存模拟优化  

Simulated optimization of peaking unit inventory considering coal futures

作　　者：郭晓鹏[1] 杜宗尧 任东方 饶素雅 GUO Xiaopeng;DU Zongyao;REN Dongfang;RAO Suya(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Fujian Railway Construction Development Center,Fuzhou 350011,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]福建省铁路建设发展中心,福建福州350011

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2024年第9期151-159,共9页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金资助项目(23GLB028)。

摘　　要：新型电力系统要求电网能消纳更高比例的新能源,当前储能的高成本限制了其规模化应用,强化燃煤调峰机组的煤炭库存可靠性是现阶段保证新型电力系统安全稳定运行的基础。运用系统动力学方法建立调峰机组考虑煤炭期货的库存管理优化模型,在此基础上,根据期货交易规则设计了模拟实验,并制定合理的期货与现货并行的补货策略。最后以某调峰机组为例,证明该模型能够保障调峰机组的煤炭可靠性,并结合期货现货并购有效地避免煤炭过度储存而造成的浪费。研究结论可以为燃煤电厂调峰机组的煤炭管理提供优化策略与决策参考。The new-type power system requires the power grid to consume a higher proportion of new energy,the current high cost of energy storage restricts its large-scale application.Strengthening the reliability of coal inventory of coal-fired peaking units is the basis for ensuring the secure and stable operation of the new power system at this stage.A system dynamics method is used to establish an optimization model for inventory management of peaking units considering coal futures trading,on the basis of which a simulation experiment is designed according to the coal futures trading rules,and a reasonable replenishment strategy for futures and spot is formulated in parallel.Finally,taking a peaking unit as an example,it is proved that the model can guarantee the coal reliability of the peaking unit and effectively avoid the waste caused by excessive storage of coal by combining the futures spot merger and acquisition.The conclusion of the study can provide optimization strategy and decision-making reference for the coal management of peaking units in coalfired power plants.

关 键 词：燃煤调峰机组 库存模拟优化 煤炭期货 系统仿真 库存管理 

分 类 号：F416.21[经济管理—产业经济]