我国社会养老负担时空差异分析  

Temporal and Spatial Differences in the Social Elderly Care Burden in China

作　　者：刘勇 杨雪 LIU Yong;YANG Xue(School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,Hubei Province,China;School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,Fujian Province,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《老龄科学研究》2024年第9期33-49,共17页Scientific Research on Aging

基　　金：2022年度四川省基层卫生事业发展研究中心资助项目“成都市城乡居民长期护理保险制度实施效果评价”(项目编号SWFZ22-Y-38)。

摘　　要：基于2000—2021年人口统计数据,利用泰尔指数和莫兰指数衡量我国省际社会养老负担的时空差异。研究结果显示:我国社会养老负担随着人口老龄化的加深整体呈增大趋势,社会养老负担总体差异持续扩大;区域间社会养老负担差异是导致总体差异不断扩大的主要原因,并呈U型发展趋势;在贡献率上,区域间社会养老负担差异对总体差异的贡献率呈正U型发展趋势,区域内社会养老负担差异对总体差异的贡献率呈倒U型发展趋势。进一步研究发现,西南地区和西北地区的区域内社会养老负担差异在扩大,其余地区的社会养老负担内部差异正逐步缩小。在空间相关性上,我国各省级行政区之间的社会养老负担空间相关性主要出现在东部沿海地区、南部沿海地区及北部沿海地区,其中华北平原呈现出社会养老负担高度集聚现象,社会养老负担低-高集聚现象主要出现在中部地区和东部地区,并在2010年后转移到北部地区。研究结果表明:区域发展模式能够减少区域内社会养老负担差异,促进区域内部经济社会的均衡发展。Based on demographic data from 2000 to 2021,this study used the Moran's I and Theil index to measure inter-provincial spatial and temporal differences in the social elderly care burden in China.The results indicate that the social elderly care burden in China is generally increasing as the population ages,and the overall disparity in this burden continues to widen.The differences among regions are the main reason for the continuous expansion of the overall disparity,showing a U-shaped development trend.The contribution rate of inter-regional differences in social care burden to the overall difference shows a positive U-shaped trend,whereas the contribution rate of intra-regional differences to the overall difference shows an inverted U-shaped trend.Further research reveals that the intra-regional differences are widening in southwestern and northwestern China,while the internal disparities in other regions are gradually narrowing.The spatial correlation of social elderly care burden among province-level administrative regions in China is primarily observed in the eastern,southern,and northern coastal areas.Notably,the North China Plain exhibits a high concentration of social elderly care burden,while the lowto-high concentration is mainly found in the central and eastern China,shifting to northern China after 2010.The research results indicate that regional development models can reduce internal disparities in social elderly care burden and promote balanced economic and social development within regions.

关 键 词：社会养老负担 泰尔指数 时间趋势 区域差异 空间相关 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]