中国婚姻模式变迁对生育的影响——与日韩的比较研究  

The Impact of Changing Marriage Pattern on Fertility in China:A Comparison with Japan and South Korea

作　　者：李婷[1,2] 王强[3] Li Ting;Wang Qiang

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心 [2]中国人民大学家庭与性别研究中心 [3]中国人民大学人口与健康学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2024年第6期78-95,共18页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：北京市社科基金项目“中国的婚姻模式变迁及其社会人口学后果”(21DTR022)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：全球众多国家正面临长期低生育水平的困境,东亚地区儒家文化圈的国家更是集体性陷入极低生育水平,并表现出相似的婚育特征。文章基于中日韩三国婚育模式的历史变迁,探索了中国婚姻模式变化对生育的影响。研究结果表明:(1)三国经历了相似的婚育水平和模式变化;(2)婚姻模式变动始终发挥着拉低生育水平的作用,已婚生育率对生育水平的影响随时间呈“负—正—负”的变化特征;(3)若以2020年为起点,保持中国女性婚内生育倾向不变的情况下,婚姻的推迟和不婚水平的上升均会进一步压低中国的总和生育率。目前中国女性的平均初婚年龄相对较低,意味着未来婚姻推迟的空间更大,需要警惕婚姻对生育的负向压力。Many countries around the world are facing the dilemm a of long-term low fertility levels,especially the countries of the Confucian cultural in East Asia,where the extremely low fertility level is prevalent,displaying similar characteristics of marriage and fertility.Drawing upon the transformation of marital and fertility patterns in China,Japan,and South Korea,this article explores the influence of changes in Chinese marriage on fertility.The findings reveal that:(1)China,Japan,and South Korea have undergone similar shifts in marital and fertility levels and patterns.(2)The marital pattern contributes to lowering fertility levels,with the influence of marital fertility rates exhibiting a"negative-positivenegative"characteristic.(3)If 2020 is taken as the starting point,under the condition of keeping China's female fertility intention unchanged within marriage,the delay of marriage and the rise of unmarried level will further reduce China's total fertility rate.The lower mean age at first marriage among Chinese female implies a greater likelihood of marriage being delayed in the future,necessitating vigilance against the negative pressure that marriage may exert on fertility.

关 键 词：婚姻模式 生育模式 生育水平 国际比较 

分 类 号：C913.1[经济管理] C923[社会学]