中国区域经济不确定性测度与溢出效应  

Measurement of uncertainty in China’s regional economy and its spillover effects

作　　者：丁冠群 薛领[1] Ding Guanqun;Xue Ling(School of Government,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《地理科学》2024年第11期1883-1891,共9页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(22AZD043)资助。

摘　　要：本文基于百度搜索指数大数据挖掘,构建中国区域经济不确定性指数,通过捕捉微观主体的搜索行为来体现“不确定”的主观认知态度,借以衡量区域经济的不确定性。分别从全国和省级尺度对中国区域经济不确定性指数进行了测度和时间序列分析。采用DY溢出指数模型,研究跨区域经济不确定性的静态溢出效应、动态溢出效应和净溢出效应。在此基础上,采用复杂网络方法,构建区域间经济不确定性的溢出网络模型,考察区域间不确定性溢出路径,得出主要结论如下:所构建的区域经济不确定性指数能够对重大事件所造成不确定性的波动进行有效的识别。经济、地缘政治和公共卫生重大事件的发生会引发区域经济不确定性持续攀升。溢出效应网络分析结果显示长江中游地区和西南地区是系统中溢出的主要输出者,东部沿海地区等其他区域在系统中扮演着溢出接收者的角色,跨区域经济不确定性主要沿着“西南→东部沿海”“长江中游→南部沿海”等路径扩散。Based on Baidu search index big data mining,this article constructs China’s regional economic uncertainty index,which measures regional economic uncertainty by capturing the subjective cognitive attitudes of micro subjects’search behaviors that reflect“uncertainty”.The Chinese regional economic uncertainty index is measured and analysed in time series at the national and provincial scales,respectively.The DY spillover index model is used to study the static spillover effect,dynamic spillover effect and net spillover effect of cross-regional economic uncertainty.On this basis,the spillover network model of inter-regional economic uncertainty is constructed using the complex network method to examine the path of inter-regional uncertainty contagion,and the main conclusions are as follows:The constructed regional economic uncertainty index is able to identify the fluctuation of uncertainty caused by major events effectively.The occurrence of major economic,geopolitical and public health events can trigger a sustained rise in regional economic uncertainty.The results of the spillover network analysis show that the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the southwest economic zones of China are the main exporters of spillovers in the system,and other regions,such as the eastern coastal economic zone,play the role of spillover receivers.Cross-regional economic uncertainty is transmitted mainly from the southwest economic zone to the eastern coastal economic zone,and from the middle reaches of the Yangtze River to the southern coastal economic zone.Regional economic policymakers should establish and improve cross-regional economic uncertainty coping mechanisms,identify and understand the time-varying characteristics of economic uncertainty based on regional resource endowments,development levels and specificities,scientifically formulate differentiated regional economic risk prevention and control policies,and maintain policy continuity and stability.Through scientific and technological innovation and industria

关 键 词：区域经济 经济不确定性 溢出效应 网络分析 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]